Thanksgiving week in Baltimore is likely to be chilly but mostly dry, as storms threaten New England, forecasters say

A cold front moving through the area could drop temperatures in the Baltimore area 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Thanksgiving Day, but the region may dodge the wintry storms threatening other parts of the country, National Weather Service forecasters say.

On Monday, cool air is likely to move through the area, possibly bringing some rain showers along with it — or snow flurries if it’s cold enough — early next week, said NWS forecaster Ray Martin.


Elsewhere in the country, though, forecasters are warning of the potential for heavy precipitation Monday into Tuesday, with a storm pulling moisture from the Atlantic. For instance, intense rainfall is likely along the New England coast, and both rain and snow are possible in interior parts of the Northeast.

Different forecasters’ models disagree on how severe the storms may be. The American Global Forecast System, for instance, shows the storm moving quickly, reducing the amount of precipitation it drops on the Northeast. The European model, ECMWF, shows a slower-moving storm with the potential to produce greater amounts of precipitation.


It could be the first snowfall for some areas, and it could also interrupt Thanksgiving travel that’s likely to increase in intensity compared to last year, when the COVID-19 pandemic forced many families to stay home for the holiday.

One survey, from AAA, suggested 13% more Americans may travel this year compared to 2020, for a total of 53.4 million people on the roads and in the skies. That’s only a 5% decrease compared to 2019 levels.

In Baltimore at least, the Thanksgiving weather forecast doesn’t appear very eventful, Martin said. The day is poised to be cloudy and cool.

“It won’t be crystal clear blue skies,” Martin said. “It doesn’t look likely we’re gonna see any major weather systems Wednesday around next week. But it will be a chilly, breezy period for sure.”

The normal Thanksgiving Day high temperature in Baltimore is about 54 degrees, and the normal low is about 34 degrees, Martin said.

The cool temperatures of late have been a “shock to the system,” Martin said, largely because October was very mild, but temperatures in early November frequently sunk below normal.

“Because it was so warm in October, we really had no time to get used to it. It’s almost like we skipped a month of weather,” he said.