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Forecasters watching year's first 'disturbance' in tropics

The National Hurricane Center predicts a 30 percent chance of the season's first named cyclone forming in the next five days. (National Hurricane Center)

Though hurricane season doesn't officially start for nearly another month, the National Hurricane Center is watching for an area of low pressure that forecasters give a 30 percent chance of becoming a subtropical storm within the next five days.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern Bahamas, east of the Florida and Georgia coasts, by the middle of this week, according to the hurricane center.

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By the end of the week, it could start to look like a subtropical storm, and some models suggest it could strengthen enough to become the year's first named storm, Ana.

It is likely to mean rough surf and rip currents along the southeastern U.S. coast. But it's still too early to forecast if any storm that forms will affect the mid-Atlantic.

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"The models are all over the place. Most of them are holding it down around Savannah, Ga., over the weekend," said Andy Woodcock, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Baltimore/Washington forecast office. "If it does get up here, it wouldn't be until next week."

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