Though El Niño likely means a relatively subdued hurricane season ahead, AccuWeather.com predicts that with favorable conditions for storms in the Gulf of Mexico, as many as 3 storms could affect the U.S. coastline.
The weather forecasting website says this will likely be only the fifth below-normal Atlantic hurricane season in two decades, with eight named tropical storms, one-third less than the average of 12 storms per year. AccuWeather predicts four hurricanes, one of them becoming a major hurricane.
El Niño is known for stunting tropical cyclone development because it causes high wind shear, when wind speeds and directions vary at different altitudes. Wind shear makes it more difficult for storms' columns of spinning air to form.
Meteorologists expect relatively few storms to form in the central Atlantic, typically a key tropical cyclone development zone. That's because of the wind shear and also because water temperatures and air moisture have both been running below normal to normal there, said Paul Walker, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather.
But waters in the Gulf of Mexico are warmer than normal. Warm water and moist air are key fuel for tropical cyclones to form and strengthen.
Because of that, AccuWeather predicts a normal amount of storms will make landfall in the U.S. On average, two or three storms hit U.S. coastline each year. Forecasters are urging preparedness on the Gulf Coast, and for the East Coast to be on guard, as well.
"The Gulf Coast is certainly a big threat," Walker said. "Just because a storm forms in the Gulf doesn't mean it can't move up the Eastern Seaboard."
The U.S. has already seen one landfalling storm this year, with Tropical Storm Ana forming nearly a month before hurricane season begins June 1.
One storm made landfall last year, Hurricane Arthur, which disrupted Fourth of July celebrations when it hit North Carolina. Other storms stayed clear of land but stirred up rough seas for Atlantic beaches.