Diamond Stone's decision to leave Maryland after one season did not come as a surprise to those who followed the 6-foot-11 center's career since high school.
A consensus top-10 player nationally and regarded as the No. 2 big man in the country as a senior at Dominican High in Milwaukee, Stone was believed to be a potential NBA lottery pick in 2016 if he chose to spend only one year in college.
So why has Stone, after a season in which he was one of the top big men in the Big Ten, seemingly fallen so steeply in projections of Thursday's NBA Draft?
Most mock drafts have Stone being selected at the tail end of the first round, but some have dropped him into the second round along with two other former Terps, forwards Robert Carter Jr. and Jake Layman.
Midway through his only season in College Park – shortly after he scored a school freshman record 39 points in his Big Ten debut against Penn State – Stone was mentioned in one mock draft at going No. 10 overall. (The same mock draft had Melo Trimble going No. 16).
"I don't know if the lofty draft status they had him at was entirely realistic," ESPN analyst Len Elmore said Wednesday. "To me, he's a good player that has a chance to be very good. Some of the things that are innate – like that hard-charging motor, like that competitiveness, which is going to get him in the best conditioning he can possibly be in from a competitive standpoint, those are things that are somewhat questionable."
Elmore, who played professional basketball for 11 seasons after his career at Maryland in 1974, said that in talking with several NBA front office personnel, they also believe Stone has "a limited ceiling" because of his lack of athleticism and physical tools.
"I've heard that about a lot of guys who have exceeded that, and that goes back to competitive fire and those things, he's going to really have to develop that in order to compete," Elmore said.
Jim Tanner, who as president of Northern Virginia-based Tandem Sports and Entertainment helps lead Stone's management team, said Wednesday that he expects the 19-year-old to be a first-round choice in the draft, which will take place at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Tanner declined to speculate where Stone might wind up.
"I don't think his stock has fallen, I think teams have been very, very impressed with what he's done when he's come in for his workouts," Tanner said. "He's shown them things that they weren't expecting to see, especially with his 3-point [range]. He's done a phenomenal job on the court.
"Off the court I think he's done an equally phenomenal job in terms of getting to know teams, allowing them to get to know him. What I would say is that I think he's done a great job in this draft process and we look forward to what tomorrow holds."
Maryland coach Mark Turgeon said Stone is ahead of schedule for where he thought he would be coming out of high school.
"When we recruited Diamond, it was a two-year plan, and it just went a little bit quicker than we thought," Turgeon said. "I think he's further along than I anticipated. I knew we had a big growth curve that we had to go through with a lot of things. For me, he just came along a lot faster. That's why he put his name in the draft."
Tanner said Stone has worked out for 11 NBA teams. The Toronto Raptors, who hold the No. 9 and No. 27 picks in the first round, invited Stone back for a second workout Monday.
Though Stone was not among the 18 players invited to attend the draft in New York, Tanner still thinks Stone has a chance to be a lottery pick.
"This is going to be a very unique draft in terms of a lot of trade activity among teams in the first round that have multiple picks; it's going to be a function of what happens with some of those trades," Tanner said.
One NBA scout who witnessed one of Stone's workout said this week Stone "was in the mix" to be drafted by his team. That team has a pick between 15 and 25.
Stone, who was not available for comment Wednesday, will watch the draft with family and friends in College Park.
At last month's NBA Draft Combine in Chicago, where many players mentioned as potential first-round draft picks did not participate in the two full court scrimmages, Stone didn't test particularly well in terms of his standing vertical leap (30.5 inches), maximum vertical (36.5) or other drills measuring quickness.
Tanner said there are no regrets of Stone foregoing the scrimmages.
Derrick Powell, the vice-president for athlete representation for Tandem Sports and Entertainment, is also playing a significant role in guiding Stone. Powell said teams have come away impressed with the 19-year-old's overall skill level and basketball savvy.
"I think the teams that have worked him out have noticed is that he's basketball player," Powell said. "I don't think there's been much emphasis on [Stone being] a back-to-the-basket guy, as it was before the draft or before this process started because he's shown he has range from 15 to 18 feet and further beyond to the 3[-point line]."
Elmore thinks Stone could have benefited from another season at Maryland, particularly one in which he would have clearly been the team's primary inside scorer rather than sharing that responsibility with Carter.
"I really thought that if stayed another year and really improved those skills, and they focused on getting the ball inside and used him as a hub, he could be a top-10 player next year," Elmore said.
Said Turgeon: "I think his offensive game is ready for that level from the first time he steps on the court. I think his IQ and his understanding of the game is ready for it. He's just got to continue to grow defensively and just trying to grow up as a young man. He just turned 19 in February."
Stone's performance at Maryland showed some of his potential as an NBA player.
Used exclusively in the low post, Stone was a consistent offensive presence for a team that attempted a school-record 739 3-point shots. Stone did not take a single 3-pointer.
Despite coming off the bench during the first half of the season, Stone scored in double figures in 14 of 15 games, including 12 straight in one stretch.
Though he was not considered a strong defender, Stone blocked a team-high 1.6 shots per game – tied for fourth in the Big Ten. Stone had eight blocks in a win at Nebraska.
Still, Stone's position in the mock drafts fell considerably during the last month as other young big men – most notably Michigan State's Deyonta Davis – moved up and others maintained their place.
Stone's 12.5 points in only 22.6 minutes a game were better offensively than Davis (7.5 in 18.6 minutes) or Kentucky's Skal Labissiere (6.6 in 15.8 minutes) and he was better as a shot-blocker than Marquette's Henry Ellenson (1.5 blocks in 33.5 minutes).
Even Cheick Diallo, who played fewer than eight minutes a game at Kansas with limited results (3.0 points, 2.5 rebounds, 0.9 blocks) is generally rated similarly to Stone, despite barely playing for the Jayhawks as a freshman.
Powell said he doesn't think Stone should be judged simply on what he showed at Maryland.
"If you think about it, you have a high school kid who is the biggest recruit Maryland has had in years, used to getting the ball, used to being 'The Man', McDonald's All-American, coming to a situation where you're not even the main focus of your team," Powell said.
Said Tanner, "He basically sublimated his game for the good of Maryland last year. That's symptomatic of his maturity as well, the facet that he had other skills that was able to bring to the table that he wasn't able to demonstrate for the good of the team."
Stone said during an interview with The Sun last month that he wasn't concerned where he is picked.
"I just want to get drafted, to be honest with you," he said. "Any team drafts me, I'll be thankful. I'm not picky at all. It's just a blessing to be in the situation I am."
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