On Friday, asked for his New Year’s resolution, Ravens coach John Harbaugh channeled his inner Al Davis.
“Just win, baby,” he said, echoing the motto of the iconic Oakland and Los Angeles Raiders executive. “Just win, baby.”
That’s all the Ravens (10-5) have to do Sunday to secure their third straight postseason appearance: Beat the Cincinnati Bengals (4-10-1). If they can’t, the Ravens will have to have faith — another of Harbaugh’s resolutions — that they’ll get outside help.
Five AFC games Sunday will decide whether the Ravens advance, and where in the playoff field they might end up:
- Ravens at Cincinnati, 1 p.m.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3) at Cleveland Browns (10-5), 1 p.m.
- Miami Dolphins (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (12-3), 1 p.m.
- Tennessee Titans (10-5) at Houston Texans (4-11), 4:25 p.m.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14) at Indianapolis Colts (10-5), 4:25 p.m.
There are seven ways in which the Ravens can clinch a playoff berth, though four involve ties:
- Ravens beat Bengals
- Steelers beat Browns
- Jaguars beat Colts
- Colts tie Jaguars AND Bills beat Dolphins
- Ravens tie Bengals AND Texans beat Titans
- Ravens tie Bengals AND Steelers tie Browns
- Ravens tie Bengals AND Jaguars tie Colts
In NFL researcher Ivan Urena’s breakdown of the AFC’s Week 17 permutations, which do not include ties, the Ravens make the playoffs in 28 of 32 scenarios.
Here’s how they could end up anywhere from the No. 5 seed to out of the playoff field altogether:
No. 5 seed
If the Ravens win Sunday, only a Dolphins win would deny them the AFC’s top wild-card spot and relegate them to the sixth seed, behind Miami.
In all eight scenarios in which the Ravens are the No. 5 seed, they would face the Colts or Titans in the wild-card round. Tennessee has the inside track to the No. 4 seed; only a loss and an Indianapolis win would send the Titans tumbling.
No. 6 seed
There are 12 scenarios in which the Ravens end up with the sixth seed. Most involve a Ravens win and a Dolphins win.
If the Ravens lose and Miami wins, they would also end up at No. 6 if the Bills, Steelers, Texans and Jaguars win, or if the Bills, Steelers, Titans and Jaguars win.
The Steelers and Bills can’t fall lower than the No. 3 seed, which plays the No. 6 seed.
No. 7 seed
There are only eight scenarios in which the Ravens end up with the last wild-card spot. All entail a Ravens loss and an upset by at least one of the three significant underdogs (Pittsburgh, Jacksonville or Houston).
In all but two of those scenarios, the Bills would earn the No. 2 seed and face the Ravens.
Miss playoffs
There are only four scenarios in which the Ravens do not qualify for the postseason:
- Ravens loss, Bills win, Browns win, Titans win, Colts win
- Ravens loss, Bills win, Browns win, Texans win, Colts win
- Ravens loss, Dolphins win, Browns win, Titans win, Colts win
- Ravens loss, Dolphins win, Browns win, Texans win, Colts win