The weird stat that defines the Ravens’ up-and-down season

Change is constant in the NFL, but its rate is variable. Since John Harbaugh took over as Ravens coach in 2008, he has had awful offenses turn into good ones the next season and great defenses devolve into slightly less great ones. It is almost no different across the NFL; nothing lasts forever, the good or the bad.

But this season has been one of radical transformation in Baltimore. Through four games, the Ravens have delivered on the promise of their new-look offense under second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson. Their defense, meanwhile, which last season finished as the NFL’s stingiest, has often looked clueless, as ill-equipped to stop slot receivers as it is toss plays.

Their statistical inversion has produced an unlikely coincidence, one that in many ways defines their young season: No offense in the NFL has improved more since last season than the Ravens’. And no defense in the NFL has regressed more since last season than the Ravens’.

With both former starter Joe Flacco and Jackson at the helm in 2018, the Ravens averaged 374.9 yards per game, ninth most in the NFL. Even after Sunday’s 40-25 loss to the Cleveland Browns, they still lead the NFL with 482.5 yards per game — an increase of 107.6 yards per game. No other offense has managed to improve even 100 yards per game.

These Ravens would almost certainly be undefeated had last season’s defensive dominance bled into 2019. But it hasn’t. Far from it. After surrendering a league-best 292.9 yards per game in 2018, the Ravens enter Week 5 ranked No. 27 overall in total defense, allowing 395.5 yards per game. Their 102.6-yard drop-off again stands alone; no other defense is 100 yards per game worse than it was last season.

The Ravens’ numbers should stabilize over the season’s next month. Few offenses have padded a box score so thoroughly as the Ravens did in their season-opening 59-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. And history suggests their defense will probably go a long while before allowing back-to-back 500-yard games, as it has the past two weeks.

Appropriately enough, Sunday’s opponent can offer a reminder of the folly of small sample sizes. The Pittsburgh Steelers entered Monday night’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals with the NFL’s No. 30 offense (269.3 yards per game) and No. 31 defense (442.0). In a 27-3 win, they rolled up 326 yards and held the Bengals to just 175. In other words, they looked more like they were expected to.