The free agent cupboard is almost bare, so you can head off to Fanfest this weekend or book a trip to Florida in February or March with a pretty good idea of what the Orioles are going to look like in 2011.
Oh, there are a few remaining players — most notably veteran slugger Vladimir Guerrero — who could enter the picture before pitchers and catchers report to the newly renovated O's spring training facility in three weeks, but nothing is likely to happen that will substantially change the outlook for the coming season.
Let's be honest. Nobody can deny that the Orioles are a better team on paper than the one that did that '62 Mets imitation for four months last year. How could they not be? The question is whether they can double down on their late-season surge under new manager Buck Showalter.
I think we all know the answer to that. The Orioles' winning percentage under Buck was so impressive that it would be foolhardy to base any of your expectations for 2011 on it. That doesn't mean it was a pure statistical anomaly, but it was a short sample in a sport (and a division) that requires a sustained six-month run at that level to reach the postseason.
When you look back on 2010, you're left with an interesting question. Which team was the real Orioles — the team that was on pace to be one of the worst in baseball history for nearly two-thirds of the season or the team that suddenly turned a corner under Showalter and played .596 ball the rest of the way?
The answer, of course, is both, which is why you can't just add the upside potential of Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy to the equation and come up with a .500-plus outlook. That's why you can't look at the late-season progress of several young pitchers and apply it directly to next season's won-loss column.
For that matter, you can't just assume that Showalter will be able to work the same magic he did in August and September, especially since even he can't explain exactly why the performance of the team leapt upward so dramatically.
What you can assume is that the Orioles will almost certainly be a more dynamic and exciting team than the one that returned from spring training last April. The new players who have been added to the batting order can't help but make the offense more explosive and take some pressure off Nick Markakis and Adam Jones. The addition of closer Kevin Gregg should make it easier for the bullpen to hold things together at the end.
Which leaves the not-so-small matter of the one area where president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has not yet been able to add depth. The starting rotation, as of now, is simply last year's minus veteran Kevin Millwood, which will be just fine if everybody pitches well and nobody gets hurt all year. Like that ever happens.
MacPhail is still looking for some help, but the free agent options that remain are both limited and uncompelling. He could try to bring back Millwood, sign veteran Freddy Garcia or go out on a limb (literally) and take a chance on potential comeback pitchers John Maine or Justin Duchscherer.
Barring a significant trade, just about anybody who is still in play would be the kind of low-cost gamble that opens MacPhail up to the usual criticism that he is too conservative or too cheap to do what it takes to fill the remaining holes in the Orioles' roster.
Whether that's fair depends on how you view his rebuilding effort, which is still less than four years in the making. Clearly, he's not comfortable trading away prospects to acquire stopgap veterans, but that's not necessarily a vice.
MacPhail has been known to pull off a deal or two during the final weeks of the offseason, so you can't rule anything completely out, but — other than a couple weeks of speculation about Guerrero — there really hasn't been a lot of chatter connecting the O's with any potential deals for a quality starting pitcher.
In other words, what you see right now is probably what you're going to get in April — a team that will be a lot better than a year ago at that time, but still is no great threat to the status quo in the American League East.
Listen to Peter Schmuck on WBAL (1090 AM) at noon Fridays and Saturdays and check out his blog, "The Schmuck Stops Here," at baltimoresun.com/schmuckblog.