If you're still here after 12 1/2 losing seasons, nobody has to tell you that being a baseball fan, particularly in this town, is a test of faith.
The Orioles are in the midst of one of the worst seasons in franchise history and about the only reason left to pay attention is the supposedly unlimited potential of their stable of young pitchers — except that it doesn't seem so unlimited these days.
Most of the top pitching prospects in the organization are still cutting their teeth at the major league level, and every day seems to take one of them to the top or the bottom of the developmental roller coaster that is the Orioles starting rotation.
Tuesday night proved that point twice. The club sent 22-year-old right-hander Chris Tillman back to Triple-A Norfolk the day after he gave up seven runs in one inning in the series opener against the Tampa Bay Rays. Then rookie Jake Arrieta took the mound and could not hold an early three-run Orioles lead.
That's what you get when so much depends on so many of these unproven arms, which is why it requires a huge leap of faith to envision enough of them blossoming at the same time to form a rotation that can compete with their well-heeled American League East rivals in the not-too-distant future.
Tillman headed to Norfolk with a 7.92 ERA. Brian Matusz pitched well for much of the first half, but is 3-10 and reeling. Brad Bergesen is 3-7 with a 6.37 ERA going into Wednesday night's start against the Rays.
If you're starting to doubt whether these guys are going to be all they were cracked up to be, you're probably not alone, but it's a little early to bail on this latest wave of young pitching talent, even if you heard some of the same front office spin applied to the Orioles' last pitching youth movement.
"These guys are still the future of the organization," manager Juan Samuel said. "We are counting on these guys, but they are going to have their ups and downs. You can look at some of the great ones, and the first couple of years, they struggled. Some of them are in the Hall of Fame."
There's no doubt some of these guys have real talent, but their ability to express it consistently has come into serious question. Tillman delivered the best performance of his career 11 days ago, only to spin out of control Monday night. Matusz has made 10 quality starts and has been competitive in all but a handful of his 2010 performances, but has been rocked for 10 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in his past two outings. Bergesen has been all over the map.
Though it's easy enough to chalk all that up to growing pains at this point, there has to be some worry in the Warehouse.
"You are constantly reassessing, but you're talking about a three-to-five-year developmental curve at the major league level," said director of player development John Stockstill. "Just because they are here doesn't mean you're satisfied with where they are.
"When a pitcher comes up earlier than you might have planned, they still have to make adjustments like they would at Double-A or Triple-A, just against major league hitters. The biggest fallacy is that once they get here they are developed."
Pitching coach Rick Kranitz thinks it's pretty basic. These guys — all in their first or second year in the majors — are still stumbling around in the dark.
"With young guys coming into the big leagues for the first and second time, a lot of them have not gone through any real adversity," Kranitz said, "and they don't know how to deal with it. We have to make sure we find the positives and build on the positives, because it can go the other way. It can become a negative game.
"You don't want pitchers focusing on the negative."
That's one of the reasons the O's have sent both Bergesen and Tillman back to the minors on multiple occasions to rebuild their battered confidence.
The goal is to have them all come together in a year or two to form the kind of starting rotation that can carry the Orioles back into contention. Tillman, on his way out of town again, said he's confident that is going to happen, even if he and his young friends are starting to make the rest of us wonder.
"I think it's only a matter of time before we figure it out," he said. "I think it's only a matter of time before it all kind of clicks."
Listen to Peter Schmuck on WBAL (1090 AM) on Fridays and Saturdays at noon and with Brett Hollander on Tuesdays and Thursdays at 6 p.m. Also, check out his blog, "The Schmuck Stops Here" at baltimoresun.com/schmuckblog.
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