The Orioles are in the midst of what is starting to look like a historically disastrous season, and the won-lost record — which is now apace with those of the 1962 Mets and the 1988 worst-ever O's — isn't the thing that should scare you the most.
The win column is the best indication of where a team is right now. In this case, it is also a reflection of a lot that has happened in the past. And, in either case, it is so dismal that it's hard to muster any realistic hope that things will change anytime soon.
It is not, however, the sum of all fears, because everything it represents has already happened.
No, the thing that should scare you the most right now might be the same thing that has been used to comfort fans throughout the Andy MacPhail rebuilding project. The thing that should scare you the most might be the future.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that "The Plan" is already a failure, because it won't reach the end of its third year until Saturday, and I never believed that the mess MacPhail inherited could be fixed in such a short time span. What I am saying, however, is that the central component of that plan — the vast improvement of the team's player-development feeder system — has been called into serious question over the past few weeks.
The latest red flag went up Monday night, when pitcher Chris Tillman got hammered by the San Francisco Giants. He gave up six runs in just two innings of a 10-2 blowout at AT&T; Park. He was moved to the bullpen Tuesday, just days after recently demoted pitcher Brad Bergesen, who looked as though he were in the major league rotation to stay before being felled by a line drive in July.
That kind of stuff happens during a youth movement, of course. Individual player development seldom proceeds in a perfectly straight line. But the Orioles were banking on this new wave of young players to help them turn a big corner this season, and Tillman and Bergesen aren't the only ones who have failed to take the next step.
Even the main cornerstones of the club's future are struggling to establish themselves. Matt Wieters, who was universally considered one of the most promising young players in the sport, has been slow to realize the elite offensive potential that made him No. 1 on Baseball America's 2009 list of the top 100 major league prospects. True, he just recently passed his one-year anniversary in the major leagues, but his power numbers remain anemic and his batting average is more than 50 points lower than during his rookie season.
Top pitching prospect Brian Matusz also has been unable to make a dent in the team's disastrous start, though his seven-game losing streak can be tied as much to the club's offensive struggles as anything else. He has made 10 starts since his most recent victory and has given up more than three earned runs in only three of them.
It doesn't stop there. Adam Jones, who came to the Orioles along with Tillman and three other players in the much-heralded Erik Bedard deal, has finally gotten back on track at the plate, but not before his inability to lay off the bad breaking ball dragged down his numbers for much of the past year and called into question the popular notion that he is a superstar in the making.
Trying to sort all this out becomes something of a chicken-and-egg situation. Is the failure of some of these promising players to quickly establish themselves a big reason the Orioles might end up with the worst record in baseball history, or has the losing culture of this team kept them from fully expressing their talent?
The Orioles obviously should be concerned about the latter possibility, which is why it's a good idea to get some of the struggling youngsters out of this environment before it causes permanent damage to their careers.
The current player-development paradigm also depends on the progress of the club's top prospects at the two corner-infield positions, but that isn't going particularly well either. Josh Bell, who is the reason MacPhail signed Miguel Tejada to a one-year contract to hold down third base, has not emerged as a dominant hitter in his first Triple-A season. And first baseman Brandon Snyder, after making solid progress through the system the past three years, is batting below .250 with just seven home runs in more than 500 Triple-A at-bats dating to last season.
Forced to pick the top developmental highlights, you'd have trouble getting past Jake Arrieta's solid debut against the New York Yankees last week and the seemingly successful transition of David Hernandez from struggling starting pitcher to effective late-innings reliever.
Everything else is somewhere over the rainbow, which — for Orioles fans — has become a scary place.
Listen to Peter Schmuck on WBAL (1090 AM) on Fridays and Saturdays at noon and with Brett Hollander on Tuesdays and Thursdays at 6. Also, check out his blog, "The Schmuck Stops Here" at baltimoresun.com/schmuckblog.