History says the player selected No. 5 overall in the Major League Baseball amateur draft will be a productive major league player. In rare cases, the player is bound for the Hall of Fame. Occasionally, as with the most recent Orioles player taken fifth, he never reaches the big leagues.
The first category of players includes 2008 selection Buster Posey, a three-time World Series champion and 2012 National League Most Valuable Player for the San Francisco Giants. Then there’s 2006 pick Ryan Braun, the Milwaukee Brewers slugger who, worth 47.1 wins above replacement, would be considered for the Hall if not for his admitted use of performance-enhancing drugs during his 2011 NL MVP season.
That’s not to mention 2001 No. 5 pick Mark Teixeira, the Mount Saint Joseph graduate out of Georgia Tech who hit 409 career home runs, won a World Series with the New York Yankees and was three times an All-Star. There are also Hall of Very Good players such as J.D. Drew (1998), Vernon Wells (1997), 1993 AL Cy Young Award winner Jack McDowell (1987), 1984 NL Rookie of the Year and 1985 NL Cy Young Award winner Dwight Gooden (1982), and seven-time All-Star and two-time NL MVP Dale Murphy (1974).
But there are a few busts in the history of the No. 5 pick, too. Most recently, that includes the last time the Orioles picked a player fifth: Matt Hobgood in 2009. He never made it to the big leagues.
Another notable player is Matt Wieters, taken fifth by the Orioles in 2007. He needs no introduction.
In the past 15 drafts, the No. 5 pick has produced a current left-handed reliever, an Astros slugger, the Nos. 15 and 16 overall prospects in 2021, and several other players still on the fringes of the big leagues.
Take a look at the past 15 players taken fifth overall and how their careers are going: