Is it so simple to say that the Orioles' playoff chances rest on the two days, back-to-back, when Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman pitch? When they stack winning starts — let alone shutout starts, as they did Friday and Saturday in wins over the New York Yankees — it certainly seems like that will be enough.
The two young right-handers, when they're on, make a team that's starting pitching-challenged feel less so. They make a rotation that's particularly unsteady stable, and in the absence of Chris Tillman, make it seem like his return could create quite a formidable threesome atop the Orioles pitching staff.
"That's good for us right now, because Tillman's not pitching," closer Zach Britton said. "When he gets back, if they can maintain what they're doing and Tillman can come back to form, it's going to be really, really good for us. But it's about being consistent all the way through, and hopefully, whatever they're doing right now, they step back and realize what they're doing. That's the biggest thing for a young guy. You figure out, 'Hey, when I'm going really well, what is it?' You fall back on those."
This weekend represented the fourth time in their nine sets of back-to-back starts that both pitched well and won in consecutive games within the same series. On July 22 and 23, they combined for 12 innings without an earned run and allowed nine combined hits with three walks and a dozen strikeouts in beating the division-leading Cleveland Indians. On Aug. 2 and 3 against Texas, they each went seven innings and struck out seven apiece, with two runs off Gausman representing the only damage in a pair of wins over the Rangers.
They combined for six strikeouts in 12 innings of work, with Bundy allowing a pair of runs as they both earned victories over the Washington Nationals on Aug. 22 and 23. This was perhaps the most impressive, holding the Yankees scoreless in 11 2/3 combined innings with four hits allowed and 13 batters struck out.
Each set of starts has had a measurable impact on their playoff chances, according to FanGraphs' playoff odds. The first three winning link-ups saw rises of seven percentage points, 8.8 percentage points, and 8.5 percentage points.
Their rise from this most recent set of victories was the most stark. They entered September with a 31.7 percent chance of making the playoffs. That spiked to 45.8 percent entering Sunday's game, and the feeling around the team has risen with it.
All of those came in series wins, a natural result of two straight sterling starts. But when they do it, it seems to mean more. Both were the fourth overall pick a year apart, with Gausman growing into a front-line starter on the major league stage and Bundy learning to pitch in the majors out of the bullpen after three injury-hit years only to blossom into a starter in the second half of the season.
"The first time they're going to throw some meaningful pitches in their professional career, and it's coming in a playoff race," center fielder Adam Jones said. "It's coming at an important time in their lives. I just think that they're both grabbing it by the reins, and taking advantage of this wonderful opportunity to showcase, not just to the players inside here, but all the players across Major League Baseball, everybody watching baseball that these guys are pretty good pitchers."
The way the Orioles rotation falls around Thursday's day off means the dream of having these two young pitchers line up in step with Tillman, who is on the disabled list with right shoulder bursitis, as a formidable three-man group won't happen. Bundy is in line to pitch Wednesday at the Tampa Bay Rays and Gausman is set up for his next start Friday after the off-day at the Detroit Tigers. Tillman is scheduled to return on Sunday, Sept. 11.
They'll still be a nightmare duo for opponents to have to face consecutively as September rolls on, though. It will be an added bonus if they can single-handedly ensure series wins at a time when the Orioles need them. But anything that contributes to the team's success in such a manner will also benefit them, meaning future pennant chases will be just as exciting as this one could be.
"I think the next stage is to maintain it," Britton said. "They've shown flashes of doing really well throughout the whole year — like any young pitchers, it's about being consistent. I think that's the next step for them. It looks like Gausy is starting to get there the last few, but like I said, you're looking for it all the way through the season. You want it the next time out, and the next time out — same thing with Dylan.
"The big thing for Dylan is just to be healthy all the way through they year. I think for Kevin, it's all about coming in here and being consistent. He's starting to do that now, which is good, because you always want to finish strong. You don't want to start off really well and then fall off. You'd like to maintain it the whole course of the year, but it's good to see him start making the adjustments and pitching this well."