In a week's time, the Orioles have fallen out of a first-place tie in their division and into what is shaping up to be a nasty race for the two American League wild card spots.
As the neighboring Washington Nationals come to town — hardly a cure for anyone's ills as the second-best team in baseball for essentially the entire season — it's worth a look at how the Orioles' standing in the standings changed. It's just as much a symptom of what they've been doing lately as the rest of the league.
When they returned home Monday tied for first place in the division, the Orioles had a 56.9 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. Six games later, it's 36.9 percent.
The Orioles' slide is simple to explain. They were one of the league's best home teams, playing at an untenable .696 winning percentage (39-17) entering Tuesday, canceling out the problems caused by a 27-34 road record when they got to play at Camden Yards.
Sitting at 1-5 with two games remaining on this homestand against the Nationals, the Orioles haven't kept that pace up and are paying the price. A week later, they're 40-22 (.645) at home— still fine, but not good enough to keep a step ahead of the mob fighting for the playoffs in the American League.
In the division, the Orioles are 2.5 games out of first place behind the Toronto Blue Jays and two games behind the second-place Boston Red Sox. They're still holding the second wild card spot entering Monday's games, but there are other teams surging that contribute to the tension.
The Seattle Mariners are a game back of a playoff spot, having won 12 of their last 16 games. They still have 13 of their 39 games remaining against the bottom-feeders in their division, the hapless Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics.
In Detroit, the Tigers are a makeshift bunch dealing with the loss of Nick Castellanos of late, but still have Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez anchoring their lineup, and a pitching staff that has propelled them to 2.5 games out of a playoff spot. The Kansas City Royals are winners of eight straight, and 13 of 15, to climb to 3.5 games out of the playoffs. That's the same as the Houston Astros, who just took three of four from the Orioles at Camden Yards and appear to have a monster of a lineup if their pitching can keep them in games.
All told, the Orioles' myopic focus on the division may still help them close out all the noise that surrounds them, but there's more to worry about than Toronto and Boston. In a week's time, it seems like half of the American League caught up to their playoff pace.