What are the Orioles' odds of winning the American League East?

The Orioles reached the 100-game mark last night and, in case you hadn't noticed, the race in the American League East has tightened up.

The Red Sox (60-41) lead the Rays (59-41) by just a half game, and the Orioles (57-43) enter play tonight just 2 1/2 games out.


But what are the odds for each team to win the division?

According to – which runs millions of simulations for the remainder of the season – the Orioles at this point have just a 15.4 percent chance of winning the AL East. (Click here for more about the website's methodology.)


Boston has 44.8 percent chance of winning, Tampa Bay has a 38.3 percent shot and the Yankees – who seemingly were just in the hunt – are given just a 1.5 percent chance of repeating as division champs.

The Orioles still have a 59.9 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to this formula. (They're 1 1/2 games ahead of Texas for the second wild-card spot entering tonight.)

So, at this point it's better than a coin flip that the Orioles will be playing in October.

These are significantly stronger odds than a week ago. Heading into All-Star break, the Orioles had just a 39.2 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 9.4 percent chance of winning the division.