The difference in making wide receiver D.K. Metcalf a first-round pick, as opposed to waiting patiently on a second-round Deebo Samuel, is negligible. Second-round picks, the economists found, make as many starts and Pro Bowl appearances, and at cheaper cost. The sensible approach is therefore to spread out your picks, to enhance your chances of finding important contributors. "History suggests you do better by trading down from the top, using multiple lesser picks than one high pick," says Massey, who consults with NFL teams.