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Analysis and betting tips for Saturday's race card at Laurel Park

For The Baltimore Sun
Saturday is a big day at Laurel Park and Gabby Gaudet has you covered with her race analysis and best bets.

Gabby Gaudet's betting tips and best bet for Saturday's race card at Laurel Park:

Race 1, 1:10 p.m. post time

Selections: No. 1 Let’s Get It Going, No. 5 Jumpin Frac Flash, No. 7 Luckbox Sam

Let’s Get It Going hasn’t been too far off in his last three races and with the presence of several horses that should show speed on the dirt, he may get the right setup. Jumpin Frac Flash looks a bit untrustworthy on the aggressive drop. Luckbox Sam drops from open competition but might have distance limitations.

Race 2, 1:40 p.m.

Selections: No. 2 Martywiththeparty, No. 3 Bearcat Kitten, No. 1  Chief Tarhe

Martywiththeparty debuted on a muddy, goopy track but I like the experience he got from taking dirt and continuing to move forward. Had some greenness issues down the stretch that he could build from. Bearcat Kitten meets the easiest field of his career thus far and has the speed to be a danger. Chief Tarhe had to send from the rail post last out but is better posted today to have the ability to settle. 

Race 3, 2:10 p.m.

Selections: No. 7 Two Notch Road, No. 6 Moon River, No. 2. Available

Two Notch Road comes out of a very strong effort in the Turf Monster after not breaking quickly and being left farther back than probably preferred. He ran the strongest of all to take the White Oaks Farm stakes at Pimlico and faces many similar foes again today. Moon River doesn’t really have that late punch but he is consistent. His best hope to turn the tables is to be positioned a bit closer to the pace. I was very tempted to pick Available on top but the 2-36 record doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. Troubled trips seem to follow him.

Race 4, 2:40 p.m.

Selections: No. 5 Complete St., No. 7 Skipalute, No. 1. Secret or Not

Complete St. looks to capture the Brookemeade back-to-back and has really outrun her odds in her past few leading into this race. Sets her up nicely for the restricted field today. Skipalute either is a great bet or a trap. She comes out of the strong races at Saratoga, including her turf debut when beaten by a Chad Brown runner that came back to win the Yaddo. That said, she’s been beaten significant margins. If she actually likes the turf, the rest of the field could be in trouble – I just still question if she does. Secret Or Not is well posted and admire her consistency. 

Race 5, 3:10 p.m.

Selections: No. 9 Stella Rose, No. 7 My Impression, No. 1. Pricedtoperfection

Stella Rose got a beautiful trip in her last race to successfully defeat allowance-company and has done nothing wrong on the turf, finishing second to On Leave who recently won the Sands Point. My Impression was severely impacted by the slippery turf in the Lake Placid, losing traction and stumbling at the quarter pole. Expect her to sit close to the pace. Pricedtoperfection got in a bit tight and had to steady at a pivotal part in the Riskaverse. Already a Grade 3 winner, she has the class and experience to be very tough.       

Race 6, 3:40 p.m.

Selections: No. 12 Force The Pass, No. 7 Blacktype, No. 11 March

Force the Pass is a horse that has been yearning for an honest pace. He didn’t get that in the Fourstardave nor the Forbidden Apple when he had to press King Kreesa. Finally he gets Macagone, Reporting Star and Heiko to make things more interesting. However, it won’t be an easy task from the outermost post. Blacktype seems like an improving horse in the latter half of his 5-year-old season but he did benefit from a speed duel that collapsed in the Oceanport. I’ve been a little tough on March. I initially thought his effort in the Hollywood Derby was a bit phony as Om did the dirty work, but his comeback race last out was legitimate and he has every opportunity to build upon that.

Race 7, 4:10 p.m.

Selections: No. 2 American Patriot, No. 3 He’ll Pay, No. 10 Isotherm

American Patriot exits an extremely impressive effort in the Secretariat. Not only was he taken back to last out of the gate but then made an early move on the backstretch, and somehow found more in the tank to grind out the last 1/8th of a mile in a Grade 1. Like his chances today. He’ll Pay may slightly get overlooked considering it took him a while to break his maiden and only has one other win on synthetic – but he’s been hampered by trouble. He’s a sneaky horse in here. I’m one of Isotherm’s biggest fans – this is a contentious race but maybe the iron is hot now with first Lasix and third start off the layoff.

Race 8, 4:40 p.m.

Selections: No. 5 Brainchild, No. 3 Hold Me Back, No. 7 In Bella’s Honor

Liked that Brainchild showed speed and hung on until the final few yards going long in her debut. Well posted in the middle of the field for today’s turn back. Hold Me Back looks to transitions his form to the turf after improving on the dirt last out. The dam was winless on the turf. In Bella’s Honor is out of a very nice family that makes her related to Action Andy, Phlash Phelps, Baltimore Bob, etc. All very talented horses but got better with age and experience.

Race 9, 5:10 p.m.

Selections: No.1 Rapid Rhythm, No. 11 Away We Go, No. 5  Hooligan

Rapid Rhythm is much the horse to beat after her runner-up effort at Kentucky Downs last out. Her only vulnerability is the rail post position. Away We Go took the Jamestown at 2-years-old and there’s been a lot of stop-and-go in the meantime. I like that she gets back to a preferred surface and distance. Hooligan shortens off the freshening but tends to be a bit inconsistent.

Race 10, 5:40 p.m.

Selections: No. 7 Rose Brier, No. 2 Runningthevale, No. 9 Dannhauser

Rose Brier looks simply too good for this crowd. He almost beat a horse last out that came back to win a stakes at Kentucky Downs with a 103 Beyer. He’s setup to dominate this race yet again. Runningthevale has never finished worse than second going a distance of ground and has the speed to carry him a long way. Dannhauser is who he is – not fast early. Can we see his form from Tampa earlier this year resurface?

Race 11, 6:10 p.m.

Selections: No. 6 Pax Orbis, No. 3 Peppermint Prince, No. 7  Photogenic

Pax Orbix sits atop a poor performance at Timonium, but willing to forgive him and hope he runs back to his race just prior. He used to have a lot of early speed – could that shine again today? Peppermint Prince is always right there, but hasn’t been able to win in over a year. Photogenic a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde type of horse but he ran an 80 beyer back in April. Anywhere close to that could have him posing in the winner’s circle.

Best Bets: Race 10, No. 7 Rose Brier & Race 7, No. 2 American Patriot

Price Play: Race 11, No. 6 Pax Orbis

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