When it comes to Nyquist winning the 141st Preakness at Pimlico Race Course on Saturday, his undefeated record is not the only factor that makes the Kentucky-bred colt a heavy favorite.
History is also on his side.
Only three new shooters have won the Preakness since 1984 and one of them — the great filly Rachel Alexandra — really didn't fit the definition, having won the 2009 Kentucky Oaks two weeks before.
With eight of the 11 entrants this year being new shooters — horses that didn't run in the Kentucky Derby — trainer Doug O'Neill said he believes Nyquist's experience at Churchill Downs will give him an edge.
"It's hard to simulate a race in the mornings," O'Neill said Wednesday. "The old cliché is that a race is equal to three [workouts]. A race like the Derby battle tests you so quickly. A horse matures after a big Derby effort."
O'Neill should know, after guiding I'll Have Another to victories in the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 2012.
"Though some of these horses might have more time and space between their last races, I think the edge of winning the Kentucky Derby might trump that," O'Neill said.
As confident as Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert appears to be in Collected's chances, the six-time Preakness winner is quick to concede that his 10-1 shot is "going to have to perform the best he's ever performed. He'll also need some racing luck."
All of the shooters will need that, most of all 30-1 long shot Laoban.
While all the other fresh Preakness entries have won previously, Laoban is coming to Baltimore looking to break his maiden in his sixth start. It doesn't seem to be much of a deterrent to trainer Eric Guillot.
"He's run fourth, second and third in three consecutive races, so it's not like he doesn't belong," Guillot said before the post-position draw was unveiled Wednesday. "You take Nyquist out of the equation, [the rest of the horses are] not head and shoulders over him by any means."
Guillot said that he has won two graded stakes races with two horses looking to break their maidens, a Grade 2 stakes race at Del Mar by seven lengths and a Grade 1 race at Louisiana Downs.
In this case, ignorance could be bliss.
"If my horse could read the Racing Form, maybe he'd be more nervous," Guillot said of Laoban. "He don't know he's a maiden."
As for a heavy favorite (3-5 currently) such as Nyquist losing, Guillot said, "It's 14 days [since the Derby]. They've all got four legs and a tail. Nyquist's a superior horse, but he can have a bad day like any."
Baffert said that he chose to pass on Churchill Downs because he thought Collected's chances of beating Nyquist were better at a longer distance.
Some might look at Collected as lightly raced; Baffert sees a horse that has victories in his past two starts, most recently a Grade 2 stakes race at Keeneland on April 16.
"I'm here because I really feel that we're going to be competitive and if the favorite has a bad race, anything can happen," Baffert said. "I've had horses [that were favored] coming into a race and all of sudden, they lay an egg. If our horse runs well and Nyquist throws an interception or something, you've got to be ready."
Baffert said that he wouldn't have come east if he didn't think he could do his Ed Reed imitation and win a record-tying seventh Preakness.
"I wouldn't be flying to Baltimore just to eat crab cakes," said Baffert, who is one win behind R. Wyndham Walden, the Preakness record holder.
Though Uncle Lino has never raced outside California, veteran trainer Gary Sherlock is hoping to have the same type of result as he had the only two times he has ever shipped one of his horses outside the state for Grade 1 races — victories.
That was in 2008, when his fillie named Intangaroo won Grade 1 stakes races at Churchill Downs and Saratoga.
"I'm 2-for 2-in Grade 1s [outside California]," Sherlock said. "I hope we don't mess it up."
Two other factors could come into play Saturday — the weather and which horses break to the front if Nyquist, which stalked Danzing Candy at the Kentucky Derby until taking over on the back stretch and holding off Exaggerator at the end, does not.
The torrential rain didn't seem to bother American Pharoah a year ago, but it could impede Nyquist's pursuit of perfection if one or more of the new shooters, especially those with early speed, jump out right ahead of O'Neill's horse.
Given American Pharoah's mud-splattered victory, Baffert should know.
"The break is going to be monumental, because when you have a lot of speed horses and you have mud, if those speed horses get in front of you and you have mud in your face — including my horse — he has to break really well or else he's not going to be effective," said Baffert, American Pharoah's trainer.
The number of new shooters is high, even for the Preakness, though it's not the most in recent memory. There were 10 shooters of the 12 entries in 2008 when Big Brown won the Preakness after winning the Derby.
Of the three shooters to win the Preakness since 1984, only Red Bullet's win in 2000 over Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus is considered a true measure. Bernardini won in 2006 after Barbaro tragically broke down. Rachel Alexandra became the first fillie to win in 85 years.
Not that O'Neill is looking ahead to the Belmont Stakes yet.
"In these kind of races you've got to respect everyone," O'Neill said. "If you look past anybody that's good enough to line up in a race like the Preakness, you're being silly."
Guillot believes — well, sort of — that Laoban has the edge, even over Nyquist, despite having yet to win.
"He has something that the others don't have," Guillot said. "You know what that is?"
When the answer wasn't immediately forthcoming, Guillot smiled.
"Me," he said. "Like Don King was for Mike Tyson."
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New Shooters; Odds; Skinny
Stradivari; 8-1; Todd Pletcher looking to complete his own career Triple Crown (2007 and 2013 Belmont Stakes, 2014 Kentucky Derby).
Collected; 10-1; Bob Baffert going for record-tying seventh Preakness win, one more than D. Wayne Lukas.
Cherry Wine; 20-1; Has only raced three times this year, winning once, but trainer Dale Romans won 2011 Preakness.
Uncle Lino; 20-1; Won last start at California Chrome Stakes on April 30, and is one of four participants sired by Uncle Mo, including Nyquist.
Abiding Star; 30-1; Winless in his first six starts, has won his past five races. Taken out of quarantine Tuesday at Parx Racing in Pennsylvania.
Awesome Speed; 30-1; Has won four times, three at Laurel, most recently the Federico Tesio Stakes on April 9.
Fellowship; 30-1; Won twice as a 2-year-old, but has yet to win in five tries this year.
Laoban; 30-1; Has run in only one Grade 1 stakes, finishing fourth in last race April 9 at Keeneland.