Approaching the starting gate for the 2003 Belmont Stakes, jockey Jerry Bailey had reason to be confident that his horse, Empire Maker, was going to stop Funny Cide's quest for a Triple Crown.
Bailey knew that Empire Maker had beaten Funny Cide in the Wood Memorial by a half-length and thought he "could have won by five."
Because Funny Cide was known more as a speed horse — recording the 10th-fastest time at the Derby and then blowing the field away in the Preakness, which Empire Maker sat out with an injured foot — Bailey figured Funny Cide would run out of a steam at the longer Belmont.
"You knew Funny Cide was going to be on fire coming out [of the starting gate] and it minimized his chances at the mile and an half," Bailey said.
For some of the same reasons, Bailey, now a Hall of Famer and a racing analyst for NBC, believes American Pharoah will win Saturday's Belmont Stakes and become the first thoroughbred since Affirmed in 1978 to complete the elusive Triple Crown.
Top 2-year-old
American Pharoah's time in the Kentucky Derby (2:03.02) was among the slowest since 2000 and his performance in the Preakness was only impressive because of the messy conditions. His winning time (1:58.46) was the slowest at Pimlico since 1950.
"I'm not a numbers guy, I'm a visual guy and an experience guy and I just try to compare how they are relative to their peers in an individual year," said Bailey. "For me, I thought as a 2-year-old he was three or four lengths better than his competition and I continue to think that this year. He's just better than his competition. It's not like he wasn't and he's blossomed and now in the last three weeks he's better. I think he's been better all along."
Past performance is on the side of American Pharoah, who as a 2-year-old was considered the best male horse in the country.
The last four Triple Crown winners — Affirmed (1978), Seattle Slew (1977), Secretariat (1973) and Citation (1948) — have all received the honor, as did Count Fleet (1946) and War Admiral (1937).
Here's what could be a more telling statistic: Of the 23 horses who have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown but failed at Belmont, only one has come off being the champion 2-year-old. That was Spectacular Bid (1979), widely considered the best horse not to have won a Triple Crown.
'He has the style to do it'
American Pharoah's trainer knows all about losing at the Belmont. Of the 13 horses who have failed to complete the Triple Crown since Affirmed, three of them -- Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998 and War Emblem in 2002 -- were trained by Bob Baffert. Silver Charm and Real Quiet finished second.
"The way I look at it is it wasn't meant to happen," Baffert told reporters the morning after the Preakness. "He's the best horse so far. He just has to dig it out one more time. I've never had a horse win the Preakness like that. My other horses that won were battling pretty good. War Emblem was light and it really affected him.
"This horse here, he's something special. He's fast, he can get out of trouble. He can sit a little bit. He's not totally one-dimensional. He has the style to do it. ... If he runs his race, he can do it. We just have to get him rejuvenated. If he runs that race again, he's going to be tough to beat."
Those who have watched American Pharoah steamroll the competition — winning earlier this year by 6 ¼ lengths at the Rebel Stakes, by eight lengths at the Arkansas Derby and by seven at the Preakness — make them think he has what the other Triple Crown wannabes didn't possess.
Billy Turner, who trained Seattle Slew, has been more impressed from what he has seen so far of American Pharoah than any of his recent predecessors.
Beating the conditions
What sticks out to Turner is the fact that American Pharoah has adjusted to a crowded field at Churchill Downs and a sloppy track at Pimlico to win each of the first two legs. Turner also liked the fact that American Pharoah won in Louisville in a pedestrian time.
"He didn't have anywhere near the best of it in the Derby, but he won the race very nicely," Turner said of American Pharoah's one-length victory over Firing Line. "In the Preakness, he just took control from the start and it was all over. He was just a superior horse in the race."
Turner knows that the track known as "The Big Sandy" — Belmont Park — has long proved a daunting and taxing stage for many horses hoping to become part of the sport's lore.
"Ideally he may not really relish going the mile and a half, but I still think even though he might not be a mile and a half horse, he moves so much better than the rest of them, that going to have him to beat," Turner said.
Hall of Fame jockey Edgar Prado, whose three Triple Crown victories include when he stopped War Emblem's bid for history with 70-1 longshot Sarava, said American Pharoah's win in seemingly treacherous conditions at Pimlico added to his reputation.
Said Bailey, "I don't see any condition that they can come up that will put a monkey wrench into the way he runs. He seems to have handled everything."
Bad luck at the Belmont
Still, Prado and others are aware that recent horse racing history might not be in American Pharoah's favor. He acknowledges that racing luck — typically bad when it comes to Triple Crown hopefuls — plays a part.
"Anything can happen during the race, even when the gates open," Prado said.
Or even before the gates open.
Consider what happened to Spectacular Bid, who on the morning of the 1979 Belmont stepped on a safety pin and developed an infection. Though some wonder how it affected Bid's performance, more point to an unnecessarily aggressive early ride from jockey Ronnie Franklin the horse not to hold onto what was a rather substantial lead.
On all the horses who have recently failed in their attempt for a Triple Crown, Bailey thinks that Big Brown was the most promising before American Pharoah.
In 2008, Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby by 4 ¾ lengths as a 2-1 favorite and the Preakness by 5 1/4 lengths going off at 1-5. Despite a three-inch crack in one of his hooves discovered three days after winning in Baltimore, Big Brown was a 3-10 favorite going into the Belmont. In a move that was second-guessed heavily afterward, jockey Kent Desormeaux pulled Big Brown up shortly after reaching the back stretch, saying later that he "had no horse left."
Peaking at the right time?
Since finishing fifth in his maiden race at Del Mar last August — nearly 10 lengths behind the winner — American Pharoah has had a smooth ride.
Baffert rested American Pharoah more than five months after the horse injured one of his legs winning the Grade-2 FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita on the day of the Breeder's Cup last September. He raced just twice more before going to Churchill Downs in May.
Here's a scary thought for those trying to stop American Pharoah's quest on Saturday.
"He might now just be peaking," Bailey said.