The wait should be over! American Pharoah is the real deal and should win the Belmont Stakes going away. His performance in the Kentucky Derby was nothing short of impressive, going wide in both turns before turning back Firing Line in the stretch.
Coming out of the Derby, the biggest criticism of him was that the Derby effort may have taken too much out of him and that he might be vulnerable in the Preakness. That turned out to be far from true. He was much the best in the Preakness, winning in a romp. His breeding says he should handle the distance easily, so there is no reason to suggest he will not prevail in the Belmont Stakes, ending the 37-year drought of Triple Crown winners.
There is very little early pace in the Belmont, so American Pharoah should set the early fractions. Expect him to be on the lead within the first half mile and then inch away in the turn and stretch. The Belmont Stakes is frequently won from on or near the pace, and American Pharoah has shown the ability to win from different post positions and in different pace scenarios.
The stiffest competition will come from the horses who ran in the Derby but skipped the Preakness. Of those, Frosted looks to be the best. He closed well in the Derby to snag fourth place. Materiality looks very dangerous as well. The Derby was just the fourth start of his life. He handled the pressure and the distance very well, finishing a very respectable sixth. If he learned and matured off that effort he could advance in the Belmont Stakes.
Tale of Verve comes into the Belmont fresh off his startling second-place effort in the Preakness. Since his only previous success was a maiden race, that finish was a bit of a fluke, possibly aided by the sloppy track or an advantageous pace scenario. Madefromlucky skipped both the Derby and the Preakness, but has had a solid 3-year old season. His most recent win is over this track, so he has proven he will handle the racing surface.
This race does not shape up well as a good betting race. American Pharoah should win at very short odds. Behind American Pharoah, Madefromlucky is a good bet to round out the exacta. For trifecta bets, add in Frosted, Keen Ice, and Materiality.
Liam Durbin is owner/handicapper of e-ponies.com and creator of the One Click Pony and Exacta Max apps. He shares his Triple Crown picks and betting tips with The Baltimore Sun each year.