Gabby Gaudet's analysis for Sunday's race card at Laurel Park.
Race 1, 1:10 p.m. post time
Selections: No. 5 Becky Kecki, No. 6 Crafty Regan, No. 4 Pony Romo
Becky Kecki should like the cutback to 7 furlongs today and should get the pace she needs in front to stalk and close. Crafty Regan has proven effective at the distance but we usually see her need a couple of races in between notching her conditions. Pony Romo is a dead-end closer so the added real estate can only help. Rider/trainer combo have been quite successful at the meet.
Race 2, 1:43 p.m.
Selections: No. 3 Fiery Diamond, No. 2 R Bling Shines, No. 7 Sprinklesmiddle Ez
Fiery Diamond makes her turf debut after 13 career starts but is by a sire whose progeny win 21% at turf sprints. She has the pedigree to move up on the turf. R Bling Shines is another that will make her turf debut off the claim. The mare never ran on turf but the grandam was Group 1 placed/Group 3 winner on the turf in Europe. The blinkers come off Sprinklesmiddle Ez off the claim and you know she'll be speedy out of the gate. She has always been one to improve second or third start off the layoff.
Race 3, 2:14 p.m.
Selections: No. 10 Tale of the Nile, No. 9 Simon Kenton, No. 4 Cold Spice
Tale of the Nile has had a tendency of not breaking well leaving the starting gate, but last out was one of his worst breaks of all time. Yet he still regathered himself and closed very well from off the pace. He even experienced trouble a few yard from the wire. Hoping for a clean trip. Simon Kenton is another deep closer but does he have to be that far back? Look for him to sit closer, second time getting Lasix. Cold Spice broke poorly last out sprinting but showed good late energy and a strong gallop out. Will relish the added distance.
Race 4, 2:44 p.m.
Selections: No. 2 Another Badge, No. 8 Banana Anna, No. 1 Time to Spare
Another Badge was a bit outclassed throughout the winter at the Fairgrounds. She ran well on the drop against good-for-level field last out and those company lines should give her the edge here. Banana Anna is also one who is getting a class relief. She was caught chasing behind an open-length winner last out. Look for her to be closing late. Time To Spare has tinkered with different distance and surface but I do feel that her best is sprinting on the dirt. Will have to work out a trip from rail post, however.
Race 5, 3:14 p.m.
Selections: No. 5 My Music, No. 3 Desert Princess, No. 2 Carrauntoohil
Desert Princess is the morning line favorite and the horse to beat on paper from numbers alone. She was third behind two next out winners last out but visually she did look a bit flat. I'll try to beat her with My Music who ran a game race from the rail post two starts back off the layoff. Think she meets the right level here. Carrauntoohil was bumped between horses early last out and hard to rate but regrouped to finish gamely.
Race 6, 3:53 p.m.
Selections: No. 7 Deer Dog, No. 6 Oak Bluffs, No. 4 High Bar
Deer Dog got into a considerable amount of trouble in his turf debut. He came back to work out a trip from the rail in his last start and now gets into a high percentage barn. Oak Bluffs has a tremendous amount of back class. I still question the steep drop last season but the placement here shows they want to protect him. High Bar comes off the layoff for a barn that does well with this angle (61-180 day layoffs on turf = 3-16 19% $6.93 ROI).
Race 7, 4:24 p.m.
Selections: No. 7 Maggie Wag, No. 2 Came Up Rosie, No. 1 Keys Garboy
Maggie Wag looks like lone speed and should be tough to catch, albeit at a short price. Other than said favorite, Came Up Rosie has the ability to sit close, and could get a preferred stalking trip. Keys Garboy is a deep closer and she likely won't get a fast early pace, but she's proven she can close into mediocre fractions in the past.
Race 8, 4:54 p.m.
Selections: No. 7 Pool Winner, No. 5 Chief Exchanger, No. 8 Wise Mac
Newly gelded Pool Winner makes his seasonal debut. He's always been heavily bet at the windows given his record and speed. The barn does well with similar layoffs and it's hard to make a case to beat him. Chief Exchanger has kept good company lately but where does he do his best running? His most recently win was in 2014 on the lead and I don't see him getting that setup today. Wise Mac was a little disappointing off the layoff last out and I still think he may be better longer.
Race 9, 5:24 p.m.
Selections: No. 8 All I Karabout, No. 2 Pizmo Time, No. 10 All Alone
All I Karabout put in a disappointing performance last out off the layoff but I haven't given up just yet and neither has the barn, entering him in this competitive allowance. The blinkers come off to hopefully settle him from off the leaders and make a one-run move at the top of the stretch. Hard to take a short price on a horse that's never tired the turf but Pizmo Prize is kin to Ziptime, a horse that broke its maiden going long on the turf. All Alone's turf races were against much cheaper company but I still believe he's best going long on the turf. Like him for a piece at a price.
Race 10, 5:53 p.m.
Selections: No. 2 Compulsive, No. 7 Hollywood Ice, No. 4 Big Zapple
Compulsive should benefit from the cutback here where he's a three time winner and can stalk. Hollywood Ice is a danger on the class drop and Big Zapple can improve leaving open company and in for this race condition today.
Best bet: Race 8, No. 7 Pool Winner
Price play: Race 2, No. 3 Fiery Diamond