Gabby Gaudet's analysis and betting tips for Friday's race card at Pimlico Race Course:
Race 1, 1:10 p.m. post time
Selections: No. 4 Runaway Raj, No. 1 Deterrent, No. 3 Indian Bucks
Runaway Raj put in a series of good efforts at Indiana Grand last fall against tougher than these. He'll have to fire off the layoff but I like the workouts in the time between and is now sent out of a barn that is 19 percent (3-16, $4.56 ROI) with their turf sprinters. Deterrent could get more aggressive from the rail today. Also found excuses in his last two races, last out was very wide and was completely compromised by early trouble in Gulfstream effort. Indian Bucks has been in good form lately but must step up against slight more accomplished runners here.
Race 2, 1:38 p.m.
Selections: No. 3 Serenready, No. 4 Time to Spare, No. 2 Katie's Caddie
Last Serenready time was on the dirt, she got off to an awkward start that hindered her ability to sit closer to the pace. Today the blinkers go on and I'd imagine we'd see a lot more speed from her, maybe even dictating in front with other questionable speedsters today. Time to Spare will have to improve from her last start but other than the favorite isn't facing any real superstars today. Katie's Caddie has a good stalking style to pick up the pieces and fits with these class-wise.
Race 3, 2:06 p.m.
Selections: 7. Awesome Bill, 1. Mott, 5. Marsden
Awesome Bill put in the majority of the dirty work, pressing the pace last time out. He lost his position at the top of the stretch but came back impressively to hold second. Visually was impressed by his gritty performance. Mott has room for improvement in his (potentially) first start on a firm turf course in about two years. Like his sprint race to serve as a good tightener for this. Marsden made the lead mid-stretch but weakened slightly between horses. Looked a little short but could move forward today.
Race 4, 2:34 p.m.
Selections: No. 3 Passing Parade, No. 1 Favorite Niece, No. 7 Best Number
Passing Parade debuted on a sloppy, sealed track and didn't look like he wanted any part of it. He was very green, throwing his head and couldn't handle the surface conditions, making me think he can improve on a dry track. Favorite Niece gets a needed class relief and experienced trouble in last dirt event but tough to take short price. Best Number has been relatively consistent in her starts this year but has to get over the 1-22 hump.
Race 5, 3:02 p.m.
Selections: No. 7. Daystrike, No. 9 My Giant, No. 3 Favorite Heir
It's been a while since Daystrike stretched out in distance but his races last year going a route were arguably even better than his sprints. He may not be fastest early with the presence of other sprinters stretching out, too, but he has the controlling outside position to decide. No matter the level, it seems My Giant keeps finding someone to beat him. I think the blinkers on will affect this runner in a positive way but worth noting this high percentage barn is only 2-20 10 percent, $0.75 ROI with horses first off the claim, going long on the turf. Favorite Heir made an extremely impressive closing bid last out, splitting horses along the way, but it did look like the pace was collapsing in front of him for an ideal setup.
Race 6, 3:30 p.m.
Selections: No. 3 Derwin's Decision, No. 1 Sweet Honesty, No. 4. Britt's Fortune
Derwin's Decision maintained an even pace last out behind the speed of Britt's Fortune but with the presence of otters speed like Hideaway, we could see that pace fall back to her even mores than last time. Sweet Honesty debuts for trainer Mike Trombetta who is 17% with maiden claiming, first time starters, sprinting on the dirt with a positive ROI of $2.08.
Race 7, 3:58 p.m.
Selections: No. 8 Rocky Policy, No. 2 Aquinnah, No. 9 Sun and Moon
Rocky Policy unfortunately has one running style and that is settle early, close late. She may or may not be able to get up in time at five furlongs, but I'm willing to take one more shot with her given her impressive late energy and strong gallop out last out. Aquinnah has developed a habit lately of showing speed and weakening at these sprint distances. She may be meeting an easier field today than the last few but I'm still a bit suspect as the favorite. Sun and Moon expended a lot of energy early last out and probably went a touch too far. Like the cutback here.
Race 8, 4:26 p.m.
Selections: No. 3 Smuggling, No. 9 Sally Pollock High, No. 1 Justice for Sheena
Smuggling ran into several tough runners in her last turf start off the layoff, as the top four finishers cam back to win their next start. Look for her to be making a closing run in her third start off the layoff. Sally Pollock High improved her speed and performance on the stretch-out in distance last out on the dirt and that could serve as a preface to the same effect on the turf. Justice for Sheena fell a little flat last out but the drop in class will make her the one to beat.
Best bet: Race 3, No. 7 Awesome Bill
Price play: Race 8, No. 3 Smuggling