College Basketball

Is Towson actually the favorite in CAA tournament?

Towson was the preseason favorite to win the Colonial Athletic Association. Delaware was a game better in the regular season.

So which team is the favorite at this weekend's CAA tournament at Baltimore Arena?


Ken Pomeroy, the incomparable college basketball statistician and blogger, says Towson.

On his blog, Pomeroy breaks down the odds of each team reaching each round of the CAA tournament.


No. 2-seeded Towson has a 83.4 percent chance of winning its quarterfinal against James Madison, a 60.4 percent chance of reaching the final and a 33.5 percent chance of cutting down the nets Monday night and earning the league's automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

Pomeroy gives Delaware a 30.2 percent chance of winning it all.

"The semi-home status I bequeath on Towson is enough to give the Tigers a slight edge over regular-season champ Delaware," he writes. "Though the ratings may not be fully appreciative of the recent return of the Blue Hens' do-it-all guard Jarvis Threatt."
Threatt was suspended when Towson beat Delaware, 78-63, at SECU Arena on Feb. 17. The Blue Hens won their first meeting, 83-76, in Newark, Del.  

While a collision course of the top two teams feels imminent, the favorites don't always prevail at the CAA tournament.

Pomeroy's metrics say No. 4-seeded Drexel is most likely to ruin that matchup, with a 17.8 percent chance of advancing to the final. No. 3 William & Mary has a 7.1 percent chance of playing Monday night, Pomeroy says.