The most talked-about playoff scenario for the Baltimore Ravens revolves around the prediction that they'll win their last two games, finishing 12-4 and one game behind the New England Patriots (who'd also win out), thus snaring the No. 2 seed, a first-week bye and second-round home game.

But if the Ravens have proven nothing else this year, it's that relying on what somebody says should happen can be folly.

So here's a look at the other possibilities:

If the New England Patriots lose another game and they, the Houston Texans and Ravens all finish with 12-4 records: The Houston Texans would get the top seed based on their superior conference record. The Ravens, assuming they win out, would then be No.2 seed and the Patriots would fall to the third seed. The Ravens did beat the Texans but in a three-team tiebreaker situation, head-to-head only applies if one of the three teams beat the other two or lost to the other two. The Patriots haven't played either the Ravens or Texans so the head-to-head does not apply here. That brings you to the second tiebreaker, which is conference record. If the Texans win out, they'll have a 10-2 conference record, compared to 9-3 for the Ravens and 9-3 for the Pats (assuming they'd lose to either Miami or Buff; and if they don't we're not having this conversation.)

Now if the Texans lose one of their remaining two games, and it's just the Ravens and Pats who finish with 12-4 records, the Ravens would finish with the top seed and the Pats second. Here's why: the first tiebreaker criteria (head-to-head) doesn't apply because the Ravens and Pats haven't played. The second criteria is conference record and the Ravens and Pats would finish with identical 9-3 conference records. The third criteria is common opponents: they'd be tied in this one as well. They have four common opponents (San Diego, Jets, Pittsburgh and Indy) and both of their records against these teams is 4-1. So this is a wash. That leaves you to the 4th tiebreaker, which is strength of victory. Based on the winning percentage of the teams that the Ravens have beaten, they take the No.1 seed over the Patriots.

Got that?

Jeff Zrebiec

Following is a brief look at how the tiebreaker will work in case there is a deadlock for the best record in the AFC.

1. Head-to-head: This would only apply if it was between two teams that played each other during the season, like the Ravens and Steelers, the Ravens and Texans, the Steelers and Texans and the Steelers and Patriots. It would not apply in a three-team tiebreaker situation.

2. Conference record.

3. Record against common opponents: For this to apply, each team involved in the tie would need four common opponents.

4. Strength of victory: It's too early to apply this because it depends on the final winning percentage of oppnonents, but with two victories this season against Pittsburgh and one against Houston, the New York Jets and the San Francisco 49ers, the Ravens should stack up pretty good in this category.