Vladimir Guerrero will arrive in Baltimore later this week to take his physical, bringing with him a potential Hall of Fame resume, a towering presence and some questions about how much he has left in his soon-to-be 36-year-old body.
If Guerrero passes his physical and finalizes a one-year, $8 million dollar deal that was agreed to early Friday evening, he'll become the team's biggest free agent addition since the Orioles signed Miguel Tejada to a six-year, $72 million deal before the 2004 season.
He'll also likely complete a busy offseason in which president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has overhauled the lineup, adding Guerrero, first baseman Derrek Lee, third baseman Mark Reynolds and shortstop J.J. Hardy, solidified the bullpen with the signings of Kevin Gregg, Jeremy Accardo and Koji Uehara, and taken a flier on oft-injured starter Justin Duchscherer.
But the addition of Guerrero is clearly the headliner as the team — at long last — gets a bona fide cleanup hitter. As per team policy, Oriole officials won't comment on the deal until Guerrero's physical is completed, but there are plenty of conclusions to be drawn after the addition of the nine-time All-Star, coupled with the club's other offseason moves.
The Orioles are a much better offensive team
That would have been true even had the Orioles not gotten Guerrero, but he certainly adds an element that the team just hasn't had. Even if the Guerrero the Orioles get is closer to the one that the Texas Rangers saw in the second half of the 2010 season — he batted .319 with 20 homers and 75 RBIs in the first half compared with .278 with nine homers and 40 RBIs in the second — he still brings a presence that should benefit the rest of the lineup.
"We've had some guys they've put there, that certainly in their prime — [Rafael Palmeiro] and even [Sammy Sosa] — were legitimate four hitters," said leadoff man Brian Roberts, whose health will be a key factor in the performance of the lineup. "But a lot of times, we were using people like [Miguel Tejada], who is a phenomenal hitter, but that's not the place he should be hitting. When you have somebody like Vladdy, it forces everyone else to hit in slots that are more comfortable for them. It takes some pressure off the young guys. When you look at some of the guys we have developing — [Adam Jones], [Matt] Wieters, even Reynolds — it doesn't fall all on their shoulders."
During what he acknowledged was an "embarrassing" year in 2010, Reynolds belted 32 homers to go along with 85 RBIs. Orioles third basemen last year totaled 16 homers and 71 RBIs, though they batted .260 compared with Reynolds' .198. Hampered all season by a thumb issue, Lee turned in a .260 average with 19 homers and 80 RBIs. Orioles first basemen in 2010 batted .226 with 11 homers and 59 RBIs.
Hardy is also a significant offensive upgrade over Cesar Izturis at shortstop, while Luke Scott moving from designated hitter to the outfield should improve the Orioles' production in that position as well.
Overall, the various components will give manager Buck Showalter more balance and plenty of options. The Orioles also should be much more dangerous against left-handed pitching, long a problem area for the club in a division that includes ace left-handers CC Sabathia, David Price, Ricky Romero and Jon Lester.
The Orioles have been weakened defensively
All along, team officials felt that this was the main downside of a Guerrero signing. The outfield defense, shaky for parts of last season, was great over the final two months. Left fielder Felix Pie was a big part of that, both with his legs and his strong and accurate arm.
Now, Scott, considered by scouts a below-average outfielder, goes out to left, pushing Pie to the bench or another team. The Orioles feel that Scott is better defensively than he is given credit for, pointing out that he catches the balls he should catch, makes accurate throws and positions himself well. But the fact remains that he won't be able to get to some balls that Pie would make look routine.
"I'm going to go out and work hard to be the best defensive left fielder I can be," said Scott. "I can make the plays I need to make, cover the ground I need to cover. I have a good enough arm. I play solid defense. There's never a question as far as my defense is concerned."
The presence of Reynolds and Lee should improve the infield corner defense, though Hardy is a downgrade from Izturis at shortstop.
If nothing else, the Orioles might have some nice trade chips
With the way things have been going in recent years, it would be foolish not to look at worst-case scenarios for the Orioles. If this season gets off to a disappointing start — if the young pitching staff buckles and the lineup doesn't live up to expectations — the Orioles might be in a decent position to make some moves to add some more young talent to a minor league system badly in need of it.
On the immediate horizon, they could look to trade Pie or Nolan Reimold, who will be fighting for the fourth outfield role. However, according to team sources, it is more likely that the Orioles keep both through the majority of spring training and see how things play out. Reimold has an option remaining and could always start the season in Triple-A.
Looking further down the road, the Orioles have a slew of veterans either on one-year deals or entering the final years of their contract who could make for nice rentals for contending clubs down the stretch, or fetch compensatory draft picks after the 2011 season. That group includes Guerrero, Hardy, Lee, Uehara, Duchscherer and Michael Gonzalez.
Overall, the Orioles are a significantly improved team
Despite a 34-23 finish under Showalter, team officials acknowledged that the club still had a long way to go and a plethora of needs. They attacked those holes this offseason, primarily with the additions to their lineup and the bullpen, and the result is a roster that is more talented and accomplished than the Orioles have had in years.
In adding talent, the Orioles didn't sacrifice any draft picks or lose any of the prominent players from their young core, nor did they tie themselves down with long-term contracts.
The moves have helped energize their fan base, which is justifiably fed up after 13 straight losing seasons. By upping his team's payroll by nearly $20 million from last year — it now sits at approximately $90 million — owner Peter Angelos has silenced some of the criticism that he won't spend money on the club. However, the bottom line is to rebuild some of the goodwill and get fans back in the seats at Camden Yards, the Orioles need to win.
Do significant question marks remain? Absolutely. All their offensive additions are coming off down years with the exception of Guerrero, and he struggled in the second half and the playoffs, accounting for just nine homers and 46 RBIs in his final 84 games in 2010. Roberts' back issues last season will loom over spring training. The bullpen is littered with guys coming off injury-hampered seasons, and the starting rotation — the main reason behind the team's late-season surge under Showalter — is filled with inexperience and question marks.
However, those issues are miniscule compared with the overlying issue that has dogged this team for years: The Orioles simply haven't had enough talent to compete in the American League. They still come up short in that area when you compare them to the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, but they shouldn't be as overmatched against those clubs as they have been in the past.
Roberts, the longest-tenured member of the club, acknowledged this Friday, saying that this is probably the most excited he has been in his nine years in Baltimore.
"It looks like we may be ready to make a move and put a team on the field that can compete and make some noise," said Roberts, who hasn't been on an Orioles team that won more than 78 games. "Hopefully, this is the right time for everybody."