Week 9: Sam Farmer's NFL picks

Pro football reporter Sam Farmer breaks down the games.

Off: Broncos, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Titans and Redskins

Last week's record: 8-5 Against the spread: 7-6

Season: 66-51 Against the spread: 54-63

Noon Buccaneers (5-2) at Falcons (5-2)

Line: Falcons by 8.5 Over/under: 44.5

Matt Ryan is 16-1 at home for reason; Falcons have balanced attack that's very tough to match, even for rising Bucs.

Pick: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 17

Noon Dolphins (4-3) at Ravens (5-2)

Line: Ravens by 5.5 Over/under: 40.5

Good as they have been on road, Dolphins are not stretching field enough, which allows defenses to load up on running game.

Pick: Ravens 28, Dolphins 17

Noon Patriots (6-1) at Browns (2-5)

Line: Patriots by 4.5 Over/under: 44

Even though Browns are improving, Patriots should control tempo with Tom Brady and BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

Pick: Patriots 28, Browns 18

Noon Jets (5-2) at Lions (2-5)

TV: WBBM-Ch. 2

Line: Jets by 4 Over/under: 41.5

With Lions at home and coming off impressive performance against Redskins, this has makings of an upset.

Pick: Lions 21, Jets 20

Noon Chargers (3-5) at Texans (4-3)

Line: Chargers by 2.5 Over/under: 50.5

Chargers have yet to win on road and special teams are disaster. Still, Philip Rivers should feast on this pass defense.

Pick: Chargers 35, Texans 28

Noon Cardinals (3-4) at Vikings (2-5)

Line: Vikings by 9 Over/under: 41

With Randy Moss gone, Brett Favre hobbling and Brad Childress dangling by thread, Vikings are vulnerable. But not that vulnerable.

Pick: Vikings 30, Cardinals 15

Noon Saints (5-3) at Panthers (1-6)

Line: Saints by 6.5 Over/under: 41

Beating Steelers provided confidence boost for Saints, even though there's no telling if there will be lasting effects. Carolina is just bad.

Pick: Saints 27, Panthers 12

Noon Bears (4-3) vs. Bills (0-7) in Toronto

TV: WFLD-Ch. 32

Line: Bears by 3 Over/under: 40.5

Back-to-back overtime losses have to be very deflating to Bills, who are capable of playing good teams close. Bears have lost three of four.

Pick: Bills 24, Bears 20

3:05 p.m. Giants (5-2) at Seahawks (4-3)

Line: Giants by 6.5 Over/under: 41

Seahawks are young and erratic but have been consistently good before raucous home fans. Giants have had problems there before.

Pick: Seahawks 28, Giants 24

3:15 p.m. Colts (5-2) at Eagles (4-3)

TV: WBBM-Ch. 2

Line: Eagles by 3 Over/under: 46.5

Eagles are rested and prepared to make strong showing against one of AFC's elite. But can they handle shootout with Peyton Manning?

Pick: Colts 30, Eagles 27

3:15 p.m. Chiefs (5-2) at Raiders (4-4)

Line: Raiders by 2.5 Over/under: 40.5

This has feel of Raiders-Chiefs showdown of 1990s. In those, it was often Chiefs defense that set tone. Same here.

Pick: Chiefs 20, Raiders 17

7:20 p.m. Cowboys (1-6) at Packers (5-3)

TV: WMAQ-Ch. 5

Line: Packers by 8 Over/under: 45.5

Crazy thing about Cowboys is they seem to have stopped trying. If they fall behind early, Jon Kitna will have very difficult time keeping them in it.

Pick: Packers 23, Cowboys 17

7:30 p.m. Monday Steelers (5-2) at Bengals (2-5)


Line: Steelers by 4.5 Over/under: 41.5

Bengals swept series last season but can't seem to find any rhythm this year. Rashard Mendenhall has run best on road.

Pick: Steelers 20, Bengals 17

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