Prediction
The Ravens have done an admirable job making this run despite a patchwork secondary. This is the game where the injuries catch up to the Ravens. Manning isn't banged up like Tom Brady, and he has the weapons to exploit the Ravens' weaknesses.
COLTS, 27-13
Ravens run offense
vs. Colts run defense
Ray Rice ran for 159 yards against the New England Patriots, a team postseason record. It marked his third 100-yard rushing effort in his past five games. During that stretch, Rice has averaged 124.6 rushing yards. In the past two games, backup running back Willis McGahee has totaled 229 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The Colts ranked 24th against the run, but they limited the Ravens to 98 yards on the ground in an earlier meeting this season. Indianapolis' front four rely on their quickness because of a lack of size (their average weight is 283 pounds). The Ravens are 10-1 when they rush for more than 120 yards and 0-6 when they don't.
Edge: RAVENS
Ravens pass offense
vs. Colts pass defense
Whether it's a hip injury or simply a rut, Joe Flacco has struggled with his accuracy recently. In his past two games, he has completed 15 of 29 passes for 136 yards. His 34 passing yards Sunday tied an NFL record for fewest in a postseason victory. Wide receiver Derrick Mason had his best game of the season against the Colts earlier this season (nine catches for 142 yards), but he hasn't caught more than one pass the past two games. Flacco's top red-zone target, tight end Todd Heap, won't be at full strength because of a back injury. Colts pass rushers Dwight Freeney (13 1/2 sacks) and Robert Mathis (9 1/2 sacks) will have an advantage because the crowd noise will force the Ravens to use a silent count. Left tackle Jared Gaither is dealing with an ankle injury. Flacco is 0-2 against the Colts, throwing for no touchdowns and four interceptions.
Edge: COLTS
Colts run offense
vs. Ravens run defense
Joseph Addai has been quietly effective against the Ravens. His best rushing game of the season (74 yards) came against the Ravens two months ago. In 2007, he totaled 81 yards and scored two touchdowns against the Ravens. Addai has nine touchdowns (seven rushing and two receiving) in eight home games this season. The Ravens allowed the fewest yards per carry (3.4) in the NFL during the regular season. No team has gained more than 64 rushing yards against the Ravens the past three weeks. The Ravens have given up one rushing touchdown in their past six games. Edge:
RAVENS
Colts pass offense
vs. Ravens pass defense
Peyton Manning has averaged 273 passing yards in his past three meetings with the Ravens, throwing for eight touchdowns and two interceptions. But the Ravens held Manning to one touchdown and two interceptions in the last meeting, which was only the second game this season in which Manning threw for more interceptions than touchdowns. Wide receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark both finished the regular season with 100 catches and 10 touchdowns. Wayne has hurt the Ravens the past two years, totaling 15 catches for 207 yards and one touchdown. The Ravens produced one of their best pass-rush games of the season Sunday, which helped rattle Tom Brady. But injuries have made the secondary vulnerable. Chris Carr and Frank Walker, who were the Ravens' fourth and fifth cornerbacks at midseason, will be on the field for nearly the entire game because the Ravens are expected to rely on their nickel defense. Edge: COLTS
Special teams
The major story line here is Matt Stover kicking against his former team once again. The last field goal kicked by Stover in the postseason won the Ravens' divisional playoff game over the Titans at Tennessee last year. Stover has made nine of 11 field-goal tries (81.8 percent) for Indianapolis this season. The Ravens' Billy Cundiff has converted 14 of 19 field-goal attempts (73.6 percent) for the Ravens. Jalen Parmele has averaged 28.5 yards on kickoff returns for the Ravens, and the Colts' Chad Simpson ( Morgan State) has averaged 23.6 yards. The Ravens' Carr has at least one punt return of 20 yards or more in three of his past four games. Edge: EVEN
Intangibles
The Colts are 0-3 in the Manning era after a first-round bye in the playoffs, but the more telling statistic is Manning's seven-game winning streak over the Ravens. Indianapolis' domination includes a divisional playoff victory three years ago. By resting most of their starters for the final two regular-season games, the Colts could be rusty early, but they are definitely healthier and rested entering the playoffs. This marks the fourth straight road game for the Ravens, which can start to take a toll on a team. The Ravens are also playing on a short week. Flacco hasn't led a touchdown drive against the Colts in two meetings (which includes seven red-zone trips). Edge: COLTS