One year ago this week, the Ravens faced virtually the same scenario they face today.

They had to win their final regular-season game - against a team with nothing to play for - to secure the final wild-card berth in the AFC. So despite their 2009 inconsistencies, the Ravens are in the exact position they were last season, when they made a surprise run to the AFC championship game.

So why are fans who were optimistic and excited a year ago now expressing frustration and disappointment on the Internet and on talk radio? The easiest explanation is that expectations changed.

When the Ravens made the playoffs last year with a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback, it was the equivalent of getting everything you asked for on your Christmas list, plus finding a role of twenties at the bottom of your stocking.

This year, the Ravens felt like Super Bowl contenders even before the season began. Three games into the season, they were picked by national pundits to go all the way. Now, few see them that way, especially after last week's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in which the Ravens drew 113 yards in penalties.

At different times this year, the Ravens have struggled on offense, defense and special teams. And in games decided by 10 points or fewer, their record is 2-6.

So can the Ravens beat the Oakland Raiders today and make a similar playoff run?

Ravens coach John Harbaugh believes so. In fact, he went so far as to say he's "more excited about the team and our chances" this year than he was last season.

"Last year, we were all going through it for the first time," said the second-year head coach, who has received his share of criticism this season for the team's erratic play. "This year, I think we're creating the vision among our team of what kind of team we want to become. Everybody has a clear picture of what kind of team we are going to become. That makes everybody a little more efficient in getting there. I'm excited about our chances. We take care of business at Oakland, get ourselves in the playoffs and we can win a national championship."

Oddly, what Harbaugh takes solace in is the same thing that drove a huge number of fans mad this season: The Ravens are about five good plays short of having a record of 13-2. Among the disappointments: a dropped fourth-down pass against the New England Patriots; a missed field-goal attempt against the Minnesota Vikings; a blown coverage against the Cincinnati Bengals; a late interception against the Indianapolis Colts; a dropped touchdown pass and slew of penalties against the Steelers.

Several fans believe that the team's playoff picture would be better now if the Ravens had straightened out their kicking game earlier in the season. Billy Cundiff replaced Steve Hauschka at midseason, though some believe the team never should have let now- Colts kicker Matt Stover go last year. And others say that if the Ravens had finished off opponents they had on the ropes, the team might be fighting for the top seed and home-field advantage instead of just making the postseason.

If the Ravens beat the 5-10 Raiders today, it will mark just the second time in franchise history they've made the playoffs in two consecutive seasons.

"We do a lot of things really well," Harbaugh said. "You stand on the podium [after a game] and you're proud of so many things, but it's hard to express that we just lost. That's the thing you get excited about because that's where we're going to go."

Quarterback Joe Flacco acknowledged that many struggling teams like to talk about how close they have come to winning more games in hopes of convincing themselves there are brighter days ahead.

"I think that's what you say when you're a team that's not had a great record and still has a shot," he said. "But there is some truth to the fact that we've had a tough road. We've played some tough teams, so we have experience in those types of games. We haven't always come out on the better side of those, but we'll look at those, and we use that as fuel to make sure we do come on the right side in this game and in the upcoming games."

A year ago, the Ravens weren't the flashiest team in the AFC, but they were able to rely on their strengths - running the ball and playing good defense. And although they have struggled with both at times this season, they've also excelled in those areas as well - just not consistently.

Running back Ray Rice was selected to the Pro Bowl after running for 1,269 yards and seven touchdowns in 15 games this season, and the team is ranked No. 3 in the NFL in total defense. The Ravens just haven't put it all together for long enough to make people believe they can be an elite team.

"I think the NFL is funny because you do get in rhythms and you do start feeling good about what you're doing," said tight end Todd Heap, who has caught four touchdowns in the past two games. "It's really easy to get out of those. You see it all around the league. There are teams that are playing great at times, and then they go through a lull. We had one of those this year, but right now we feel like we're playing well. Even last week, though we lost, we felt like we did some things that were pretty good. And we just want to keep that going."

One problem for the Ravens this year is penalties. Although Harbaugh and the team bristle at the suggestion that the Ravens aren't disciplined, they are the second-most-penalized team in the NFL this season.

"A lot of times, it's just individual guys straying off and doing their thing," safety Ed Reed said. "It happens. You can't account for it, but it happens. We just got to take it amongst ourselves to continue to get better and be a disciplined team, and understand that once the whistle blows, the play is over. We need to be smart about holding and grabbing and pass interference and all those things."

Regardless of what happens the next few weeks, the Ravens likely will make some adjustments in the offseason.

Two of their best cornerbacks, Lardarius Webb and Fabian Washington, sustained serious knee injuries and might not be ready for the start of training camp. Ray Lewis, despite being voted to the Pro Bowl for the 11th time, will be 35. Derrick Mason will no longer be under contract, and could retire. Mark Clayton and Kelley Washington will be free agents. Lingering neck issues have had Reed, a likely Hall of Famer, mulling retirement in recent seasons.

But all those questions remain, for now, beyond the horizon.

Ravens center Matt Birk wasn't a member of the 2008 Ravens squad that went to the AFC title game, but he said during his first season here that he quickly has developed an attachment to this squad and admires the way it goes about its business. Rocky as the season might seem, there is still an opportunity to go deep into the playoffs.

"I've been on a lot of teams, and I like this team," Birk said. "During the course of the season, you're going to have ups and downs, and a lot of things are going to happen. This is a group that definitely likes to work and likes to work hard, and I think when you do that, you've got a chance against anybody."

Baltimore Sun reporter Edward Lee contributed to this article.