It's going to be fairly easy for the Orioles front office to rationalize its inability — or unwillingness — to re-sign Nelson Cruz, the 2014 Most Valuable Oriole.
But it's going to be hard to make the case that the Orioles aren't going to miss him unless club vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette has something up his sleeve this winter other than a couple more minor league free agents.
Cruz, who reportedly agreed to a four-year, $57 million deal with the Seattle Mariners on Monday, played a critical role in the most successful Orioles season since 1997 and seemed to be a good chemistry guy in the clubhouse. He led the major leagues in home runs and went a long way toward making up the offensive production lost when Matt Wieters went down with a season-ending injury, Manny Machado missed nearly half the season because of two knee injuries and Chris Davis was suspended in September.
Now, the obvious argument against ponying up $14.25 million per year for four years is that he's a 34-year-old player who just delivered — by far — the best season of his career and, well, all those guys he covered for last season are going to be back to cover for him in 2015.
There may be some logic in there somewhere.
The Orioles are certainly hopeful that Wieters is ready to play early next season, and they have little choice but to bank on Machado being himself again after having both knees surgically repaired in the last 14 months. If Davis comes back ready to crush like 2013 instead of crash like last year, then it might be fair to speculate that the Orioles will be as imposing at the plate as they were with Cruz in the middle of the lineup.
The only problem with that reasoning is that it's based on the notion that the Orioles were a good enough offensive team the past three seasons when the playoffs in 2012 and 2014 seemed to indicate that they were not.
If the point of the club's recent renaissance is to get to the World Series, the emphasis this particular winter has to be on getting better rather than treading water and hoping to roll the dice again next October.
So far, the Orioles have lost last season's top hitter, all but conceded that they aren't in play to keep outstanding left-handed reliever Andrew Miller and hit a big snag in their negotiations to retain right fielder Nick Markakis.
Considering that both Wieters and Davis are eligible for free agency after next season, there has to be some sense of urgency to build a 2015 team that has the best possible chance of being the last team standing when the next postseason bleeds into November.
Duquette, of course, doesn't do urgency. He's known for his deliberate offseason approach and he has earned a certain amount of trust from the fans with his previous late-winter machinations — most notably last February's free-agent flurry that netted Cruz for the bargain-basement price of just $8 million for one year.
Cruz had a career year and the Orioles made him a qualifying offer last month to guarantee themselves draft choice compensation if he signed with another team. In Duquette's world, that's a win-win, but he needs to sign or trade for another dependable hitter to keep the club from being overtaken by its free-spending division rivals.
That should be in addition to Markakis, who also appears to be in serious danger of signing elsewhere.
In his case, it's not just about the monetary risk and reward that has to be balanced with each free-agent signing. Markakis is the longest-tenured Orioles player and is one of those cornerstone guys who maintain the emotional link between a team and its fans. No sense making it any harder to identify with the club when everyone knows that several other highly popular players may be entering their final seasons in Baltimore.
The Orioles organization finally has some real competitive and economic momentum. Three years removed from a 14-season losing streak, they came up only one step short of the baseball's big dance and they just let go of a guy who has proven to be one of the game's top postseason players.
That might make sense on a number of levels. Cruz would have been a high-risk sign at four years and $57 million, and the Orioles have done well during their recent turnaround to avoid getting stuck with dead money in long-term contracts.
It doesn't make sense, however, if Duquette intends to compete in 2015 with the team he built in 2013.
The Orioles need to get better… not just healthier.
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Read more from columnist Peter Schmuck on his blog, "The Schmuck Stops Here," at baltimoresun.com/schmuckblog.