It's a rite of passage to get worked up about what projection systems say the Orioles will do each year. We've established already that there's a sense of optimism among human beings, especially here at The Sun, but it's a lot harder to fool computers, which draw on historical precedents and projections.
They haven't been kind to the Orioles this offseason, but it's important to understand why that's the case before lashing out at those who print the information.
They're right more often than they're wrong, but as Dave Cameron wrote in his American League East preview today on Fangraphs, the Orioles have made the preseason and in-season projections look "silly," to the tune of 274 wins over the past three years.
"So I understand completely if Orioles fans don't particularly care that the algorithms still don't buy in, and are projecting yet another sub-.500 season," he wrote. "I imagine these tools have little credibility in Baltimore at the moment, and that won't change until the Orioles actually play like the projections expect one of these years. And it is possible that the models are broken and the Orioles are the franchise who have figured out how to exploit those holes. But it's also possible that it's just been how baseball works, and the Orioles outstanding 2012-2014 run might not be the sign of a team that has a sustainable ability to beat the forecasts."
That's likely the hope again in Baltimore, as Fangraphs has the Orioles projected at 79-83, in last place in the division and "betting that their defense and Buck Showalter's magnificent bullpen usage can make up for a weak starting rotation."
Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system has the Orioles back in the basement of the American League East after a multi-year hiatus, with a projected record of 79-83. As recapped over at Camden Chat, PECOTA has been way off on the Orioles recently, with a 16-game difference in 2014, an 11-game difference in 2013, and a 15-game difference in 2012.
A double-digit difference this year would almost assure the Orioles of a playoff spot in a tightly bunched American League, but the avenue in which they've blown those projections away might not be open this year.
It seems that in this category, the Orioles' annual pop-up star lifts the team over computer-generated expectations. Chris Davis' 2013 and Steve Pearce's 2014 both far surpassed what they were penciled in to do, and a return to that form for Davis and an avoidance of some natural regression for Pearce might buoy the team a bit more.
Otherwise, who is this year's breakout star? Does Manny Machado become an in-his-prime Alex Rodriguez clone? Is Matt Wieters' contract push going to help him over the acceptable plateau he's been on for the last few years? They'll be well above average even if they don't have great years, so which player from whom not a lot is expected could break out? Delmon Young? Alejandro De Aza? Travis Snider? There are certainly possibilities, and I bet one emerges as an everyday threat, but whoever does will have to account for a lot of production to blow the team's projections away by that much.
And then there's the pitching staff, which basically used six starters all last season, with a consistently strong bullpen and one of the game's best managers pulling the string. But the rotation, comprised of smart trade acquisitions, shrewd signings, and Ubaldo Jimenez, doesn't add much value over a replacement level rotation.
Fangraphs used the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) projections from two systems to rank which teams' starting rotations added the most value over replacements, and the Orioles came in 27th out of 30 teams with a total of 6.4 WAR. That's the equivalent of one Clayton Kershaw.
Much of this has to do with a stat called Fielding-Independent Pitching, which uses home runs, walks, and strikeouts to project what a pitcher's ERA would be with league-average defense behind him. Considering the Orioles' pitchers are projected to be around league-average in strikeout and walk rates, it's no surprise they're low on the list.
Our own notion of them being better than this projection is also skewed by last year, when every Orioles pitcher's actual ERA was way lower than their FIP. Miguel Gonzalez' FIP of 4.83 was over a run and a half higher than his 3.21 ERA, Chris Tillman's ERA of 3.34 was lower than his 4.01 FIP, and Bud Norris 4.22 FIP was cut in reality to a 3.65 ERA.
All of that takes into account the strong defense that should return this year, but you can't blame any of those statistical formulas for not breaking their tried-and-true molds for an Orioles team that has managed to outperform it for years.
They know it, too. As they wrote in the Fangraphs rotation rankings: "You know how this goes already. The Orioles rotation comes in ranked lower than people would expect, and then they go out and win a bunch of games, and there's a whole lot of 'told you so.'"