The more you follow a team's minor league system, the faster you get to the point where you only care about the low-minors, where raw but projectable players leave a little more to the imagination than players who you might have seen dozens of times in High-A Frederick or Double-A Bowie.
So I was jealous when Baseball Prospectus prospect team member Tucker Blair, formerly of OriolesNation.com, spent the weekend in Salisbury watching the Shorebirds' series against Greensboro. Reports from the games are already being posted on BP.
Last night at Bowie's home opener, we chatted a bit on some of the high-profile prospects in Delmarva, including 2014 third-round pick Brian Gonzalez, massive third baseman Jomar Reyes, and a trio of hard-throwing, intriguing college arms.
What are the initial reports you had on Brian Gonzalez, and how did that match up to what you saw last week?
The initial reports on Gonzalez were more polished than your typical high school player, not a ton of growth left but some amateur scouts believed that there was an ability to mold his body rather than for him to actually gain more projection, like a typical amateur prospect. And he had three pitches and he had feel for all of them. I saw him last year in Aberdeen and it was roughly the same thing, although I was a little bit lower on the stuff. He was mostly 87-91 when I saw him last year, and he had good separation on his changeup and he flashes a decent curveball.
Heading into this year when I saw him down in Delmarva, it was about the same thing. There was really no change from a year. … He really cuts himself off at the hips, which hurts his fastball command because basically, if you cut yourself off at the hips, with the wide frame there, you're basically cutting off your fastball command to the glove side. That's the main issue I have, if you want to call it an issue.
There's also some other mechanical quirks. He has a little stab and he has just a hard time keeping the upper half of his mechanics and the bottom half in sync. I like the changeup, I think he has good separation, there's about a 10-12 mph difference between the fastball and changeup, and there's a little bit of fade on it, but I just don't think it's enough when all is said and done to really give him an opportunity to succeed at high levels as a starter. At this point, I'm leaning more towards a middle relief or spot starter role.
What types of things would you need to see to improve that outlook?
It's tough with a guy like that because there's really no projection. It's not your typical high school prospect, but I think he can still work on the mechanics a little bit. Otherwise, there's really nothing I can envision where I can see significant improvement. I think he is what he is at this point. I guess that's a concern going forward with Gonzalez. But the stuff, he has feel for all three pitches. He's not a non-prospect, but I don't think he's a top-10 type prospect in any system.
Someone who might be the opposite of that, who could be a top-10 prospect in many systems, is third baseman Jomar Reyes. What are your early impressions of him?
I briefly saw him last year in spring training, I think that was his first time stateside and the first thing that jumped out to me was how big he was. He was listed at 6-foot-3 last year, I believe, and he was already bigger than that. He's absolutely bigger than 6-foot-3 right now. I'd say he's closer to 6-foot-6, 240 pounds.
With that comes insane power. I think he has double-plus raw power and it shows in his batting practice, and it started to show in the game a little bit. He had a few at-bats where he absolutely crushed the ball right up the middle. With Jomar, it's a raw player but there's barrel control there and he has average bat speed and the swing mechanics are there. It's not a guy where I say he has a ton of work needed. It's a guy who can hit, and I think the power's going to start to show eventually in terms of home runs and doubles, but it's still a raw prospect.
The only concern I have with Jomar moving forward is the defense. I don't envision him as a third baseman. He's a little bit too choppy, he's not a highly athletic player, so moving forward, I envision a first base mold type of player, but the thing is, he can hit. While I typically don't love when I am projecting a player to move to first base so early, I think it's an exception for him.
Now those are two of the bigger names there. Anyone else who jumped out to you during the series?
Delmarva's pitching staff was actually better than I anticipated. They have a lot of power arms down there, starting out with Matthew Grimes, who's currently a starter but I project him more in a relief role. He showed a potential above-average to plus fastball with an average curveball and moving forward, I think that's going to work in sixth or seventh inning role.
Then you had Zeke McGranahan, who comes from a weird, below-3/4 arm slot. He was 94-97, touched 97 three times in multiple viewings this weekend. He's certainly a guy to keep an eye on. There's potential for a strikeout arm out of the pen.
The final guy is Derrick Bleeker. He's actually a two-way player. The Orioles, when they drafted him, gave him a chance to hit. Then they moved him to the mound, and he was hitting 94-96 in my appearances, heavy downward movement and he's just another guy to keep an eye on down the road.
Delmarva also features two interesting catching prospects, Jonah Heim and Alex Murphy. Next week, we'll have impressions on those two from early in the season, and more on the Shorebirds. Follow Tucker on Twitter @TuckerBlairON.