Ravens' playoff chances above 80 percent, according to projection systems

Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs.
Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs. (Kenneth K. Lam, Baltimore Sun)

The scenarios that lead to the Ravens playing in January are rather simple: win the remaining two games, then clear your calendar for the first weekend of 2015.

Whether it's as a wild-card team or the AFC North champion, the Ravens' path to the playoffs is straightforward, and they can even clinch this week with a series of scenarios outlined here.


But what are the chances of said things happening? And how big of an impact do the rest of the league's games have on the Ravens' opportunities.

Again, kudos to those who took the time to crunch this actual data, as opposed to people like me who use a calculator for basic math and just compile it.

Here's a small roundup of what the numbers-crunchers say about the Ravens' playoff chances heading into Week 14:

- ESPN's FiveThirtyEight places the Ravens at 85.7 percent chance of making the playoffs, a number that can raise to 96.8 percent with a win in Houston on Sunday. The website gives the Ravens a 23.5 percent chance of winning the AFC North.

Additionally, the website's information gives the specific impact to the Ravens' playoff chances of other AFC games. The Ravens' odds increase by 4.1 percent if Denver beats Cincinnati, 2.5 percent if San Francisco defeats San Diego, 1.6 percent if Oakland beats Buffalo, and 1.2 percent if Pittsburgh beats Kansas City.

- Football Outsiders, which rates the Ravens highly overall because of the team's consistent performances all season, count their playoff chances as the highest in the division at 87.6 percent.

As one of the outlets that's highest on the Ravens, Football Outsiders gives the Ravens a 9.8 percent chance of winning the AFC, and a 5.6 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl -- which is the sixth-best chance in the league.

- Advanced Football Analytics places the Ravens' playoff odds at 87 percent, with a 26 percent chance of winning the division and a 61 percent chance of winning one of the AFC's two wild-card spots.

AFA gives the Ravens a 5 percent chance of winning the AFC and a 2 percent chance of winning the big one. So you're saying there's a chance…

- puts the Ravens' chances at 74 percent for the playoffs, with a 19 percent chance of winning the division and a 55 percent chance to make the playoffs.