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Five stats that stand out: Kevin Gausman

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For Gausman, let’s begin with the simplest part of explaining his season. His ERA of 4.04 isn’t supported by the peripherals, though even they disagree with one another on how good Gausman should be. Fielding-independent pitching (FIP), which uses walks, strikeouts, and home runs to assign a pitcher an ERA based on what they control, is 4.35. His xFIP, which uses a league-average home run rate instead of the pitcher’s actual home run rate, is 3.83. And Gausman’s DRA, which is a new stat by Baseball Prospectus that goes deep in stripping out all external factors to a pitcher’s performance, is 3.72. All told, the stats seem to indicate that Gausman’s peripherals, with his 9.05 strikeouts per nine innings and low walk rate, can support a good pitcher. It’s clear, though, that home runs are an issue. [Sources: FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus]

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With a 16.7 percent home run-fly ball rate, Gausman is tied for seventh-highest among qualifying starting pitchers. His 1.57 home runs per nine innings is tied for 12th among qualifiers. All told, it’s too high a rate and as the earlier numbers showed, is the difference between Gausman’s season looking good versus being something more. He mentioned after a recent start that there may be a difference in his mindset at home compared to the road in this manner, as he knows he has to be more fine and stay down in the zone at Camden Yards, especially in the summer. He’s allowed just six of his 21 home runs at Camden Yards in his eight home starts. Fifteen of those home runs have come in his 13 road starts. [Source: FanGraphs and MLB.com]

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