The gubernatorial contest between Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley and Republican former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. will likely be decided in a series of battleground territories — both geographic and demographic.
If, as expected, they win their respective primaries on Sept. 14, each will focus his time and money chiefly on the populous Baltimore suburbs and on vote-rich Montgomery County, which, while left-leaning, is also home to Maryland's largest group of unaffiliated voters and a seldom-remarked trove of Republicans.
Four years ago, Ehrlich prevailed in 19 of the state's 23 counties, but O'Malley took Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George's counties to win the election. Since then, the electorate has grown more Democratic, but it might also have grown weary of incumbents.
O'Malley aides say that he will work to energize reliably Democratic groups such as African-Americans, who went to the polls in record numbers when Barack Obama was a draw on the presidential ballot two years ago.
The Ehrlich campaign will try to harness voters angry at the state's one-party monopoly — Democrats control both the state legislature and the governor's office — and fearful of increases in their taxes.
Baltimore County
One afternoon last week, O'Malley and Ehrlich visited Baltimore County, regarded by analysts as Maryland's principal political battleground.
O'Malley whirled through an elementary school that the state helped to build in West Towson, posing for photos with people too young to vote and straightening up to shake the hands of their parents. Even in tough economic times, O'Malley has said, he spent $1.3 billion on school construction.
"Make sure parents know," he told an administrator who erupted in praise upon seeing him. "Sometimes we wonder where that penny goes," a reference to his penny-per-dollar sales tax increase that Ehrlich wants to repeal.
About the same time, wearing sunglasses and no tie, Ehrlich was relaxing on a deck at the home of a supporter in Perry Hall. He talked to about 20 people, several of them Republican lawmakers or candidates, about taxes that he believes might be raised next year if Democrats get their way. He wondered about services that could be taxed and whether the sales tax would go up more, saying, "This is what goes down in a monopoly."
Both appear comfortable in Baltimore County, a place that delivered each more than 100,000 votes four years ago.
Ehrlich was born and raised in Arbutus and spent years representing the area as state delegate and congressman. Though he's lived in Annapolis for most of the past decade, he still calls Baltimore County home, and even Democrats note the dominance of Ehrlich's navy blue lawn signs over O'Malley's lime-green ones.
But four years ago, as now, the former Baltimore mayor has been helped in the county by strong support from prominent Democrats, including County Executive James T. Smith Jr. and Councilman John Olszewski Sr. Smith turned his sour relationship with Ehrlich into what many considered an effective television ad for O'Malley. He said Ehrlich had not returned his phone calls in three years, a contention that Ehrlich never disputed.
Election Day returns showed the two candidates essentially tied in Baltimore County; Ehrlich narrowly won there when absentee ballots were counted. Political observers and even his campaign advisers say Ehrlich needs a far better showing in his home county this time around.
Smith predicted that O'Malley would not "do as well here as he did then," but said he sees little likelihood that Ehrlich can widen his edge.
"We have a lot of swing voters," he said Thursday. But "I don't see them swinging back toward someone they rejected four years ago."
Smith believes O'Malley is going to widen his margins in some parts of the county.
"He's in a good position," Smith said. "Not the best position, but a good position."
Del. J.B. Jennings, a Republican running for the state Senate and a former Ehrlich intern, said Ehrlich "absolutely" must do better in Baltimore County this year "and he absolutely will." Jennings' assessment of the election landscape is that it is an about-face from four years ago, when Marylanders were fed up with then- President George W. Bush and voted Democratic as punishment.
"When I knock on Democrats' doors, they say, 'I'm voting Republican. I'm disgusted with what's going with the president and with Congress,'" Jennings said.
Other Baltimore suburbs
It is not just in Baltimore County where Ehrlich hopes to pick up votes. He has held public events in Howard County — another "purple county" in which red and blue voters live side by side — twice in recent weeks. The county narrowly favored O'Malley four years ago. Analysts say Anne Arundel and Harford, traditionally more Republican, are not to be discounted.
"Those are key suburbs, outside Baltimore City," said Todd Eberly, acting director of the Center for the Study of Democracy at St. Mary's College. "Ehrlich's margin of victory declined precipitously from 2002 to 2006, and it can be explained entirely by the votes he lost in those key counties. I expect to see him really, really focus on the Baltimore area."
The number of Ehrlich voters in Anne Arundel dropped by half between his first and second gubernatorial bids. Dan Nataf, director of the Center for the Study of Local Issues at Anne Arundel Community College, said that was "symbolic of the movement away from [Ehrlich] as compelling candidate."
Nataf who conducts polling and assesses the political landscape in Anne Arundel, said he sees 2010 in Maryland shaping up as a "continuity election."
"How does Ehrlich find enough votes?" he asked. "If he can find them, they'll be in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Howard."
Montgomery County
No statewide candidate can ignore Montgomery County, a place that Maryland Attorney General Douglas F. Gansler, the county's former prosecutor, says is known to politicians as "the mother lode of votes." This year, the county's independent streak makes it more important than ever.
"This is the year of the independent voter," said Howard Denis, who for years was the lone Republican on the Montgomery County Council and the only GOP member of the county's state legislative delegation. He is a campaign adviser to Ehrlich.
"Party intensity, both for Democrats and Republicans, is at an all-time low," Denis said. "There is a tremendous amount of voters up for grabs, and nowhere displays that better than Montgomery County."
Ehrlich and O'Malley, who was born and raised in Rockville, have acknowledged this with frequent visits and strong campaign operations in the county.
Ehrlich announced his 2010 gubernatorial bid in Rockville and later chose Potomac resident Mary Kane as his running mate. Katja Bullock, one of Ehrlich's Montgomery campaign managers, said he aims to get 42 percent of the county's votes, compared with the 37 percent he secured in 2006.
O'Malley's campaign says Ehrlich's position on transportation — he favors rapid buses instead of the "Purple Line" light rail being planned — will turn off Montgomery voters. Ehrlich's campaign counters that O'Malley's recent comment that Maryland cannot build any new roads should incense Montgomery's commuters.
Voters not registered as members of a political party make up only 15 percent of the state's 3.4 million voters, but most of them live in Montgomery County, which is also home to the state's second-largest cache of registered Republicans. (Baltimore County tops the list.)
Gansler, a Democrat, said the county's "independent-minded" voters extended beyond party registration.
Although Montgomery's entire state legislative delegation is Democratic, the county is open to Republicans, Gansler said, pointing to former Rep. Constance Morella as an example. The moderate Republican represented Montgomery for 16 years until losing in 2002 after statewide redistricting.
Bullock said Ehrlich campaign workers are calling unaffiliated voters to determine how many are leaning toward Ehrlich. They will receive direct mail closer to the election, she said.
"We have a very thorough outreach to the independent community," she said. "I can't do it without them."
The Exurbs
In a recent O'Malley social media posting, the governor asks, "What's your favorite Maryland farm?" His visits this summer to Frederick serve as further evidence of his aim to keep his numbers strong in Maryland's "exurbs"— increasingly Democratic pockets in the state's once-rural areas.
Ehrlich, too, has made trips to Frederick and Washington counties, places where aides say his "O'Malley's Maryland has been bad for business" message resonates.
"Because the Republican base is so energized and anxious to vote, I think the exurban vote will be key," said Del. Christopher B. Shank, who is trying to unseat a Washington County senator in the GOP primary.
"Geopolitically, that means [O'Malley] would need to squeeze more votes out of places like Prince George's County and Baltimore City, and by all accounts, his base is just not energized. They're demoralized."
O'Malley can look to Charles County, where Democrats fill the state legislative seats and favored him in the last election, for support. Other parts of Southern Maryland, including Calvert and St. Mary's counties, remain Ehrlich territory.
Neither candidate has made a high-profile visit to Southern Maryland yet this election season. Eberly said they are "ignoring it at their peril." He said O'Malley could view it as a source of new votes, while Ehrlich cannot afford to lose any of the Republican voters there.
Eberly wonders whether the ballot presence in Southern Maryland of Rep. Steny H. Hoyer, the House Democratic leader, could energize anti-establishment voters who might favor Ehrlich. Hoyer appears to be in no danger of losing, Eberly said, but if Charles Lollar wins the Republican primary, he could motivate more Republicans to go to the polls.
Obama voters
Two years ago, African-Americans and first-time voters turned out in record numbers to elect then-Senator Obama as president. In Maryland, black voters made up a record 25 percent of the electorate, up from 23 percent in the 2006 governor's race.
Black support for Democrats could pay dividends for O'Malley if he is able to energize that voting bloc, though political observers seem to agree that the state won't see a 25 percent black vote again for some time.
"We all acknowledge there was an Obama surge vote," said Del. Maggie L. McIntosh of Baltimore, chairwoman of the Democratic Coordinated Campaign. Still, she contends that black and younger voters will go to the polls and will favor O'Malley.
Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown, a Prince George's County Democrat, said he believes black voters will be inspired to vote for O'Malley by the echoes of Obama's campaign theme of "Moving America Forward."
And the governor's cause could be aided by a well-timed presidential visit, observers say. O'Malley backed Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary election in 2008 but has been an enthusiastic cheerleader for Obama. Organizing for America, Obama's campaign apparatus, held a door-knocking event Saturday in Baltimore, and first lady Michelle Obama recently toured the State House on an educational summer field trip with her younger daughter.
"This is the one state where bringing Obama out would be a good thing," said Nataf of Anne Arundel Community College.
McIntosh said that in addition to Obama, Michelle Obama and former President Bill Clinton — who campaigned for O'Malley in 2006 — remain popular figures in the state.
"We hope to get support like that," she said.
Ehrlich aides say black voters know Ehrlich and like him. He's a frequent caller to popular radio talk shows hosted by former state Sens. Larry Young and Clarence M. Mitchell IV. Ehrlich says Mitchell supports him; Young, who says both candidates have agreed in principle to debate on his show, has remained neutral.
Young said it seems clear to him that the black electorate is not energized. A voter registration drive for the primary election that he recently held with the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People yielded 287 new voters, compared with 3,400 before the 2008 presidential primary.
Ehrlich selected a black running mate for his 2002 bid for governor; Michael S. Steele became the first African-American elected to statewide office in Maryland. Four year's later, Ehrlich generated controversy when his campaign bused in homeless men from Philadelphia to hand out literature that suggested that black Democratic leaders had endorsed Ehrlich for governor and Steele for the Senate.
Young says Ehrlich remains fairly well-liked in the black community and that O'Malley cannot afford to give up more than 15 percent to 20 percent of the black vote to Ehrlich.
Angry, fearful voters
There might be a new bloc of voters for Ehrlich: tea partiers.
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a favorite of the tea party movement, has endorsed Ehrlich's primary challenger, Montgomery County investor Brian Murphy.
Still, Ehrlich supporters say the movement represents just a portion of a larger group of voters available this fall: people who are angry at Obama and Congress and fearful of what they see as out-of-control government spending.
Jennings isn't the only lawmaker hearing such sentiment when he knocks on doors. Shank said it is clear to him, and Democratic lawmakers in swing districts acknowledge that they feel as though they're running against Obama.
Although O'Malley said he has every intention to avoid raising taxes or fees, Ehrlich is beginning to develop his message playing to fears that O'Malley will do just that. He has recently been distributing a list of 43 services to which O'Malley and the Democratic legislature might turn for revenue, based on a 2007 bill that went nowhere.
Ehrlich has frequently said that he decided to run again, leaving a well-paying job at the Baltimore office he opened for a North Carolina law firm and his talk radio show, because so many people had expressed fears about their future.
His campaign workers say the many roundtables and meet-and-greets that Ehrlich has held across the state are designed to embrace the new mood — to let them make the case for him.
But just how angry is the Maryland electorate?
"That's the great unknown," Gansler said.
Battle for votes
Baltimore suburbs: Ehrlich will try to widen his margin of victory in his home county as O'Malley attempts to undercut it; other city suburbs could help pad Republican vote totals, though Howard could be split.
Montgomery County: O'Malley can count on this reliably Democratic county, but Ehrlich can make inroads among "independent-minded" voters.
Exurbs: Ehrlich could do well in Frederick and Washington counties, while O'Malley could retain his dominance in Southern Maryland's Charles County.
Obama voters: O'Malley must energize black voters, observers say, while Ehrlich might hope the Democratic voting bloc stays home.
Angry voters: Ehrlich wants to tap a national anti-incumbent mood, but is it pervasive enough to topple O'Malley?