Gov. Martin O'Malley, who pumped millions of extra dollars into the state's university system to fulfill a campaign promise to keep tuition flat, is hoping the investment pays dividends at the ballot box later this year.
But with voters concerned about their jobs and the economy as the nation tries to wrest itself from the worst recession in two generations, analysts aren't sure how much one of O'Malley's signature initiatives, the tuition freeze that will end this fall, has resonated with voters.
"I don't see it as a huge issue in and of itself," said Patrick Gonzales, an Annapolis pollster, referring to the cost of college tuition. The challenge for O'Malley, Gonzales said, will be to link his tuition goals with other economic themes. "If it's part and parcel of a broader discussion on economic issues, it could be helpful."
O'Malley's approach on tuition contrasted sharply with that of his opponent, former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. Ehrlich relied on tuition increases to help dig the state out of the record deficit it faced when he came into office. Average tuition went up about 40 percent during his four years. In an April appearance on radio station WYPR, Ehrlich said O'Malley's protracted freeze "hurt higher education."
Though he has focused his economic message more on jobs, O'Malley hinted at how he will use the tuition issue during a high school commencement speech last week in Ocean City. "Because of the responsibilities that have fallen on your shoulders, together as one Maryland, we've chosen — alone among the 50 states — to freeze in-state tuition for four years in a row," he said. "As a result, those of you who enroll at a state college or university this fall will not have to pay one of the most expensive tuitions in America — that wasn't true four years ago."
Despite the 3 percent tuition increase this year, O'Malley will hammer on the fact that Maryland universities were the sixth most expensive in the country when he took office and now rank 21st. Higher education experts have hailed his stand on tuition as a unique achievement in the past decade.
"I expect it to be an issue during the election," said an O'Malley campaign spokesman, Rick Abbruzzese. "Specifically because we have our record and former Governor Ehrlich has his. The contrasts are stark."
An Ehrlich campaign spokesman, Andy Barth, said the former governor would not shy away from debates about tuition. Ehrlich regards the four-year freeze as a blunt tool that gave economic breaks to families who could have afforded to pay more and did not do enough for those who needed the most help.
"Governor Ehrlich went to college on scholarship, and he's well aware of the importance of need-based aid," Barth said. "He doubled the funding for need-based scholarships and made going to college affordable for students who couldn't afford it. It's different to, but just as important as, a freeze."
Abbruzzese countered that O'Malley increased scholarship aid by $95 million and, thus, gave students the best of both worlds.
Ehrlich will also emphasize "the need to look hard at reining in costs," Barth said.
Outside education experts have lavished praise on O'Malley for keeping tuition down at a time when it's soaring in many states. University System Chancellor William E. Kirwan said his colleagues are "literally in a state of disbelief" when he describes the Maryland situation at national conferences.
Average tuition for state universities went up about 8 percent nationwide for the fall of 2009, including 15 percent increases in Florida and New York and an increase of more than 30 percent in California. O'Malley, meanwhile, added $16 million to the University System of Maryland's budget to wipe out a tuition increase proposed by the Board of Regents.
"It's such an extraordinary achievement that it would be surprising if Governor O'Malley didn't talk about it during his campaign," said Terry Hartle, senior vice president of the American Council on Education. "Nobody else in the country has done it this century."
When tuition soars, many low-income families are discouraged from thinking college is possible for their children, Hartle said. Talented students are also more likely to leave for other states and never return.
"If you want to keep your brightest people, encourage them to go to your public university," Hartle said.
That sort of message resonates with voters, said state Sen. James C. Rosapepe, a Democrat whose district includes College Park. Rosapepe said he expects O'Malley to trumpet his record on tuition throughout the fall.
"He really led the nation in the effort to keep children in college, and it's a big deal," said Rosapepe, who was a regent when Ehrlich was governor. "It's a big deal to the individual and a big deal to the state."
Rosapepe said that when he holds mobile office hours at local supermarkets, he constantly hears from middle-class people who are worried about affording college. "It's one of the most important things on the family agenda," he said. "When I talk about the tuition freeze, I don't think anything gets a stronger response."
But the freeze might not be on voters' minds as much as O'Malley would like, said Sarah Elfreth, a recent graduate of Towson University who has served as the student representative on the Board of Regents. "From a political standpoint, I think it was a really smart move that hits the concerns of working-class families," she said. "But I don't think so many people are aware of it. It's something he will have to explain."
Elfreth said O'Malley's ability to balance the freeze with healthy funding of the university system will weigh heavily on her vote this fall.
Kirwan said the governor should promote his higher education record during the campaign. "It's an applause line everywhere he goes," the chancellor said of O'Malley's tuition freeze. Kirwan agreed with Elfreth that voters only somewhat grasp how well Maryland universities have done compared to systems in other states.
The issue could play well in battleground counties such as Montgomery, with large populations of highly educated people who expect to send their children to college, said Keith Haller, president of Potomac Inc. research in Bethesda.
Haller does not list college tuition as a top-10 litmus issue for the gubernatorial race. "But I could see the governor's steadfast support for higher education in wicked economic circumstances as something that will play well when he's framing his education record," he said.
O'Malley's stance on the issue was not always popular, even among fellow Democratic leaders. Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller and House Speaker Michael E. Busch both worried that the freeze had gone too far in 2009, saying it diverted funds from community colleges and set the state up for a potentially huge tuition increase down the line.
University administrators also wondered how they would keep growing and recruiting top faculty members if the price tag remained the same.
But Abbruzzese said the governor showed he's practical about the issue by allowing the 3 percent increase for this fall. Asked if the increase would make the tuition issue a tougher sell, Abbruzzese said, "After four years of no increase at all, I think Marylanders understand that 3 percent is reasonable."
The independent pollsters agreed. "Three percent doesn't strike me as that onerous," Gonzales said.
O'Malley is unlikely to campaign on promises of another freeze. "The goal was to make college more affordable in the state, and we've done that to a large degree," Abbruzzese said. "I think the governor plans to take it on a year-to-year basis. What you won't see under this administration is double-digit increases."
Tuition differences
Annual tuition at the University of Maryland, College Park:
When Robert L. Ehrlich entered the governor's office in 2003: $4,800
At the end of Ehrlich's term in 2007: $6,566
Increase: 37 percent
When Martin O'Malley entered the governor's office in 2007: $6,566
At the end of O'Malley's term in 2011: $6,763
Increase: 3 percent