I confess: I honestly don't know what to make of Larry Hogan, who tomorrow becomes Maryland's 62nd governor.
He hasn't held previous elective office, which may be a bonus in our current era of political careerism. On the other hand, Mr. Hogan's lack of a voting or governing record provides few clues as to what his real policy agenda over the next four years really is. His decision to closely guard his plans until he took office hasn't much clarified matters.
Larry Hogan is not a complete blank slate, however.
It's fair to describe him as a moderate Republican or perhaps more correctly a business-wing Republican — if only because no hard-right conservative Republican can really expect to win the state's governorship, even if running against a very weak campaign and opponent, as Mr. Hogan did last year in the form of outgoing Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown. Throughout the 2014 campaign, Mr. Hogan shrewdly pledged to accept the status quo on issues like abortion and gay marriage as effectively "settled" questions in this mostly liberal state and to instead focus his attentions on taxes and budgeting.
We learned a bit more about Mr. Hogan during the transition. He made sincere efforts to reach across the aisle to build political and policy bridges with top state Democrats, including departing Gov. Martin O'Malley. A chorus of other major Maryland Democrats, including the state's senior U.S. senator, Barbara Mikulski, joined his calls for consensus and partnership to trump partisanship.
Mr. Hogan also conferred with returning Comptroller Peter Franchot and incoming Attorney General Brian Frosh, Democrats alongside whom he'll be governing. As The Sun's Timothy Wheeler has reported, despite exchanged pleasantries, expect some policy tension to arise during the next four years between Governor Hogan and Mr. Frosh on environmental issues and the Chesapeake Bay specifically.
Maryland Republicans can be forgiven if they are sick of having to always cater to the Democrats' hegemonic rule over the state, and we'll see how long the Democrats' bi-partisan bouquets hold their bloom. But the new governor also understands that to succeed he must find common ground with state leaders whose policies he spent the better part of the past year criticizing. He just doesn't have the votes in the state legislature.
Mr. Hogan won office by criticizing Maryland's economy and the state's fiscal health. He complained incessantly about the O'Malley administration's 40 new taxes and fees and warned of Maryland's fiscal ruin.
But promises of fiscal solvency and lower taxes sell well during the campaign when voters are easily tempted by the idea that they can somehow pay lower taxes and still balance the budget; real-world budgeting is much tougher.
Abandoning his tax cut promises would be electoral suicide for Mr. Hogan. But cutting or eliminating certain revenue sources — including, yes, the stormwater fee or "rain tax" he repeatedly demonized, even though the cost to a typical Maryland household was about $3 a month — therefore requires the new governor to identify and make significant spending reductions.
On this count, candidate Mr. Hogan was strategically vague. He repeatedly cited $1.75 billion in supposed savings to be found eliminating "waste and fraud." It's easy to sell voters on the promise of miraculous savings that will offset promised tax cuts. But after the election, when candidates become officials and voters become taxpayers and beneficiaries again, voters often realize that lower taxes and the same government services and benefits is a mythical free lunch.
Sadly, when faced with hard choices politicians too often target cuts for groups with little political or campaign finance power: poorer, younger and otherwise disempowered segments of society. Let's hope this is not Mr. Hogan's reflex. At a time of rising economic disparity, Maryland actually ranks fairly low in terms of state-level inequality: 32 states and the District of Columbia exhibit greater income inequality.
For guidance on fiscal and budgetary matters, the new governor will turn to two former Republican state senators: David Brinkley, his nominee for budget secretary, and Robert R. Neall, who will advise the governor informally. On Thursday we'll know more specifics about their budget plans.
And then the real governing begins.
Thomas F. Schaller teaches political science at UMBC; his most recent book is "The Stronghold: How Republicans Captured Congress but Surrendered the White House." His column appears every other Wednesday. His email is schaller67@gmail.com. Twitter: @schaller67.