There are several reasons why the 25 percent increase figure is misleading. The first is a bit technical but important. That average refers not to the average increase for any individual who buys a policy now versus post-Obamacare. It refers to the average cost of all the policies sold by a particular carrier. Because the Affordable Care Act eliminates exclusions for pre-existing conditions and lifetime caps on benefits, it is expected, at least in the early stages, to attract a disproportionate share of older and sicker patients into the insurance exchange. Thus, at least in the short term, a larger share of the policies purchased on the exchange may be more costly than is now the case. The better a state does at encouraging younger, healthier people to buy into the insurance pool — as required by law — the more those figures will eventually even out. But in the meantime, it's important to understand that if you buy a policy from Aetna now, it won't necessarily be 25 percent more expensive in the fall.