Perhaps the best that can be said for 2010 is that it was better than 2009. The recession lingered far longer than most expected, but Maryland finally started adding jobs again, if not at the pace it needs to. Baltimore's mayor resigned in disgrace, but City Hall got a fresh start. It was a banner year for blue crabs in the Chesapeake, and the Orioles, after a dismal start, finished strong — though still in last place. The last few years have been anything but predictable (who, for example, would have guessed a year ago that Gov. Martin O'Malley would beat former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. by nearly 15 points?), but there are a few reasons we should already expect 2011 to be a momentous year.
For starters, 2011 is the year the federal military base realignment process (known as BRAC) will finally start delivering all those jobs to Maryland that we've been promised. It's been years since Maryland won the BRAC lottery to become a major recipient of new military jobs as operations in New Jersey and Northern Virginia were consolidated at Aberdeen Proving Ground and Fort Meade, among other places in Maryland. But Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown, who has been heading up the state's BRAC preparations, says the direct military jobs (some 15,000-20,000) will be here by late summer.
We won't see a lot more people in uniform walking around — the jobs we're getting are mostly civilian ones — but the affected communities will, for better or worse, be growing at a time when many others in the state and nation aren't. That should bring some added prosperity to local businesses but also added traffic to local roads. Mr. Brown says the state has spent some $100 million in transportation and infrastructure projects to accommodate the BRAC influx by moving them up the state's priority list. Unfortunately, that probably won't be nearly enough.
It's also unclear how much the influx will do to boost the local housing market. The state has provided cut-rate mortgages to families to persuade them to relocate to Maryland (as opposed to commuting from Northern Virginia, for example) and has marketed the state's schools and quality of life. But that only does so much good if the new workers can't sell their existing homes.
The other big question for BRAC is how many indirect jobs it will create. Maryland is working to convince the military contractors who served the BRAC workers in other states that they should move their operations here, and Mr. Brown says that history suggests they eventually will. The question is how soon, and how many jobs that will create. BRAC could boost Maryland's employment rolls by as much as 60,000 if the state is able to provide adequate facilities — and an adequately trained work force.
The themes of the General Assembly session that will convene this month are also easy to predict. Maryland faces a shortfall between projected spending and projected revenues of as much as $1.6 billion. The governor says he plans to submit a budget to close that gap without proposing tax increases, and that is bound to be an ugly thing, indeed.
What's likely to make the experience particularly painful is that it's coming after a period of lean times to begin with. State workers have already been furloughed for years on end, the social safety net is already frayed, and the budget for vital services — health care, in particular — has already been chopped. All of Mr. O'Malley's belt-tightening efforts during the last four years have brought the state to a point where projected spending growth is more or less in line with the growth in revenues. The $1.6 billion problem is a structural one, meaning it is expected to persist even if the economy grows at a solid pace. It has been papered over by federal stimulus funds and accounting gimmicks, but those options have run their course.
The legislature appears willing to start grappling with that problem in a serious way, thanks in no small part to Republicans in the House and Senate who have been offering increasingly specific ideas about how to realign state spending. A committee of lawmakers and outside experts recommended this year a goal of steadily eating away at that structural gap over the next four years, and the O'Malley administration appears willing, as it was in 2007, to take politically unpopular steps to set the budget on a sustainable path.
Much of this legislative session, then, will be a scramble by lobbyists of all kinds to protect their interests in the state budget. But it should also feature a significant debate over gay marriage, which appears to have enough momentum to get floor votes in both chambers. Leaders in the House of Delegates have long believed that a majority would support overturning the state's decades-old ban on gay marriage, and it looks like there's enough support in the Senate to overcome a filibuster attempt. Governor O'Malley has said he would sign a gay marriage bill, but after that is when things get interesting. Opponents are sure to try to petition the matter to referendum, a feat that isn't easy — it hasn't been done in nearly 20 years — but one that has been made more feasible by the Court of Appeals recent reversal on how closely petition signatures must match names on voter rolls.
The General Assembly session will also likely include a showdown with the state's powerful liquor industry over direct wine shipment. The question there is likely not whether consumers will be allowed to buy wine directly from vintners but whether the state will also allow direct shipment from retailers from other states.
This year will also feature a mayoral election in Baltimore City and the first opportunity for voters to react to the resignation of Mayor Sheila Dixon and the elevation of Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake. There is already a crowded field of candidates, many with impressive resumes of public service, seeking to challenge Ms. Rawlings-Blake for the top job, and that will be a healthy process.
Ms. Rawlings-Blake's tenure has largely been focused on cleaning up the mess she inherited from Ms. Dixon — a crisis of confidence in City Hall, a huge budget deficit and an unsustainable pension plan for police and firefighters, for starters. But what we need from this election is for her and the other candidates to articulate a broader vision for the city's future and a plan for how to carry it out.
How can the city capitalize on recent improvements in the school system and reductions in crime to attract more residents to Baltimore? How can the city reduce its inventory of vacant properties and transform them into homes people want to buy? How can it achieve a meaningful reduction in the property tax rate to make the city more competitive with the suburbs? How can Baltimore attract more businesses and increase the proportion of its residents who are gainfully employed? The candidate who wins next fall should be the one who is best able to answer those questions and others and provide a practical roadmap for broadly improving the quality of life in the city.
Finally, long-suffering Orioles fans will find out this year whether the ball club's astonishing revival under new Manager Buck Showalter was a fluke or a trend. A team notorious for flaming out in the last months of the season instead enjoyed the second-best finish in the American League after the savvy Mr. Showalter took over in early August. Talented young pitching, the right off-season moves and a little luck could conceivably make for the team's first winning season since 1997. Despite their improvements, however, the O's still have to compete in the toughest division in baseball.
But, hey, at least the Ravens are headed to the playoffs.