The latest Washington Post poll of likely voters in next month's general election shows Democratic incumbent Martin O'Malley handily beating Republican governor-emeritus Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. Mr. O'Malley's margin in the poll was 11 percentage points, with 6 percent of voters undecided. Based on this, Mr. Ehrlich looks like a loser on Election Day, unless the following occurs:

Mr. Ehrlich garners the support of all the various Maryland groups associated with the tea party and they come out in force on Nov. 2, while many Democrats, confident of Mr. O'Malley's victory, take the day off.

Is such a combination likely?

Voter turnout for the Sept. 14 primary was as low as it gets — about 25 percent statewide. And that was with the added "convenience" of early voting.

Even in Baltimore and Baltimore County, with competitive Democratic primaries for state's attorney and county executive, voter turnout was only at about 22 percent and 29 percent respectively.

The biggest percentage of voters — 35 percent — turned out in rural Garrett County.

Mr. O'Malley is an excellent campaign organizer and strategist, and he's had success establishing organizations in every Maryland jurisdiction and getting the vote out. So he might very well win big on Election Day in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1.

But people still need to have enough of that "enthusiasm thing" to go to the polls. And the question of this election turns on motivation: Who among Maryland voters will be the most motivated to do their civic duty on Nov. 2?

I think you have to give the motivation edge to the tea party people. And while there's been a lot of talk about how they are cool to Bob Ehrlich, and how Mr. Ehrlich defines himself as a moderate because that's the only way for a Republican to win a statewide election, there should be little doubt that, push come to shove, tea partiers will vote for Mr. Ehrlich.

Here's an online post to a recent Washington Examiner story:

"As a long-standing member of the Maryland Society of Patriots, a home-grown Tea Party here in Maryland, I can truthfully say that Mr. Ehrlich will probably be supported by many, perhaps most, Tea Party members. We are left, however, with the usual 'hold-your-nose-and-vote' situation."

But the vote will be for Bob Ehrlich. Those who voted for Mr. Ehrlich's Sarah Palin-backed primary challenger have no other place to go.

Mr. Ehrlich has been careful about all this. We haven't seen him embrace the tea party here in a big, high-profile way, and for good reason — the tea party's anti-government rhetoric doesn't work so well in a state with so many federal employees and businesses that would shrivel and die without government spending.

Contrast that with what Mr. Ehrlich's former lieutenant governor, Michael Steele, national chairman of the GOP, told Sean Hannity on Fox a couple of weeks ago:

"For the past year, Sean, I've been working with a lot of tea party activists, just everyday folks out there who have the same interests that Republicans and conservatives around the country have. … We don't want your Obamacare. We don't want your control of our car industries and our insurance companies and our banks. Leave us alone. Let us cut our own path."

Mr. Ehrlich knows he doesn't have to engage in that kind of extreme, anti-populist, what-planet-are-you-on rhetoric. He can keep some distance and still enjoy tea party support.

Add the factor of independent voters. The Post poll showed Mr. Ehrlich ahead of Mr. O'Malley among indies, 54 percent to 34 percent.

Add to this the possibility that Democrats in Baltimore, Prince George's County and Montgomery County might not have enough of that "enthusiasm thing" to come out in big numbers this time.

Add the possibility that a majority of voters in Baltimore County, Mr. Ehrlich's home county and home to a lot of older Reagan Democrats, go for the Republican candidate.

Add a trend in stronger voter turnout in the rural counties that support Republicans.

Add all of that together, and this election could be a lot closer than the Post poll would indicate.

For those who think this is all a big stretch, just remember that in 2006, when we had an Ehrlich-O'Malley gubernatorial contest for the first time, polls in the week before the election showed a dead heat. Mr. O'Malley won by 6.5 percentage points. To those who believe Mr. Ehrlich is already toast in 2010, I say hold all tickets.

Dan Rodricks' column appears Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. He is the host of Midday on WYPR, 88.1 FM. His e-mail is dan.rodricks@baltsun.com.