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Improvement in Baltimore homicide rate won't happen this year

With three more murders over the weekend, Baltimore has virtually no chance of continued improvement in the city's homicide rate. 

There have been 187 people killed so far this year, as of Sunday. Last year Baltimore saw 196 murders, the lowest total since the late 1970s and, adjusting for population change, the lowest murder rate since the late 1980s. 

The city would need to see nine homicides from this point on to match last year's number. But just once since 1970 has the city recorded less than 10 homicides in the month of November or December, let alone nine total to close the year. 

A positive takeaway for this year would be a continued decline in the number of non-fatal shootings, which were down 5 percent as of the most recent update on Oct. 27. If that holds, Baltimore would record about 360 non-fatal shootings this year, compared with 651 just five years ago and 419 in 2010.

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