Shortly before the 2004 draft, an American League scouting director was singing the praises of Old Dominion's Justin Verlander. He said he had "the best combination" of velocity and a power breaking ball in the draft, but there was an issue.
Verlander reportedly had a hard time repeating his delivery, which was why he was walking five guys every nine innings. He was projectable, if everything clicked, but Baseball America ranked four pitchers higher in its draft preview: Long Beach State's Jered Weaver, Rice University's Jeff Niemann and Philip Humber and Texas high-schooler Homer Bailey.
Greg Smith, then the Tigers' scouting director, had seen Verlander in Old Dominion's season opener and never could get him out of his mind. He would watch him closely throughout a season in which Verlander was 7-6 with a pedestrian 3.49 ERA, and in the end selected him with the second pick in the draft.
In an email last week, Smith referenced a "lack of consensus" within the Tigers' scouting staff about Verlander. But he was convinced that the powerful right-hander would rise above Weaver and Humber, who probably were safer picks, so he stuck to his guns.
"If the main focus had been on current performance, his value certainly would have slipped and moved him down the board," said Smith, now the Pirates' scouting director. "…We believed there was more in there yet to be harnessed."
The Major League Baseball draft, which is Monday, is not a media extravaganza like the NFL or NBA drafts. But success or failure can have a profound effect on a franchise. A good decision like the one Smith and the Tigers made on Verlander can change a franchise.
It's too early to judge the last three drafts, but here are some of the decisions with the most impact from this century:
•Chase Utley, 2000: The Phillies selected Utley with the 15th pick over college pitchers Ben Diggins (Arizona) and Billy Traber (Loyola Marymount). Utley had slid to the middle of the first round because teams were concerned about his fielding.
•Dewon Brazelton, 2001: The Rays took the physical specimen from Middle Tennessee State with the third pick (after Joe Mauer and Mark Prior) over Georgia Tech's all-everything Mark Teixeira, who fell to the Rangers fifth overall. Ouch.
•Prince Fielder, 2002: The Brewers claimed Cecil Fielder's much-hyped son with the seventh pick after Baseball America ranked him 24th. The Brewers relied on the experience of the late Bill Lajoie, a senior adviser who had been the general manager for the Tigers when Cecil Fielder reached the big leagues.
•Jeff Clement, 2005: The Mariners took the USC catcher third, passing on Virginia's Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals, fourth pick), Miami's Ryan Braun (Brewers, fifth) and Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies, seventh).
•Tim Lincecum, 2006: The Mariners still are getting kicked for taking Brandon Morrow over the under-sized Washington ace with the fifth pick. Baseball America had ranked Lincecum third, but questions about his durability caused him to slide to 10th, where the Giants took him over two other strong pitching prospects, Missouri's Max Scherzer and Georgia high school pitcher Kasey Kiker.
•Madison Bumgarner, 2007: The Giants struck again, also with the 10th pick. They bypassed the more highly advertised Phillippe Aumont, a 6-7 right-hander from Canada, now in the Phillies' organization.
Going the distance: The Pirates went into the weekend with a ton of internal debate about which one of the three top college players they would take with the first pick Monday — UCLA right-hander Gerrit Cole, Virginia left-hander Danny Hultzen or Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon.
Smith isn't tipping his hand, saying only this is an "exciting time for our scouting staff." But one thing that's always true — money is a factor.
Because of that, scouts with some teams wonder if the Pirates might walk away from all three of the big-ticket guys to save some of their budget to try to land a couple of tough-to-sign guys that slide because of their asking price. That could bring high schoolers Dylan Bundy, a pitcher from Oklahoma, and Bubba Starling, a center fielder from Kansas, into play.
Cole, whom some think already might be pitching for the Yankees if they had signed him a year ago, and Rendon are represented by Scott Boras. Hultzen, who is likewise not expected to need much time in the minors, was considered more signable before Baseball America's Jim Callis wrote that his agents at Creative Artists Agency are floating a $13 million price tag.
Strength in numbers: Because there are 27 supplemental picks after the first round, as well as extra first-round picks because the Diamondbacks, Padres and Brewers failed to sign their 2010 first-rounders, the Pirates' second pick will be the 61st overall.
By then, the Rays will have made 10 picks. Andrew Friedman, the Rays' general manager, worked the system by loading up on fringe free agents, who he allowed to walk away after 2010. In addition to Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano, the Rays are receiving compensation picks for Grant Balfour, Brad Hawpe, Joaquin Benoit, Chad Qualls and Randy Choate.
The last word: "At this point, I don't know what else we can do but try to play good baseball, Obviously, it's going to be like climbing Mt. Everest to get back where we need to be." — right-hander Scott Baker on the Twins.
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