Maryland commuters could face some icy steps and slippery roads Wednesday morning in the wake of a complex winter storm that refused to play out as forecasters had predicted.
Instead of the 3 to 5 inches of snow the National Weather Service had expected for Central Maryland, the overnight forecast called for a mix of snow, sleet and freezing drizzle across the Baltimore region, becoming all snow after 10 p.m.
Accumulations of snow and sleet could reach 1 to 2 inches by daybreak from Baltimore north and east, a frozen trace elsewhere.
State highway crews were pre-treating the road surfaces Monday and Tuesday in anticipation of whatever came along, spreading salt or a mix of salt brine and sugar beet molasses on the highways to keep them safe.
The diminished forecast was a relief to some.
"Bring on spring," said Chris Smolinski, in a comment on The Sun's Maryland Weather blog.
Others were disappointed.
"Bah … I'd really like at least one good snow storm this year," said another commenter, David Brawley.
Or angry: "I'm really getting sick of our government officials wasting tax dollars over-reacting to a little potential snow fall. Salting roads ahead of time before it begins snowing? Letting kids out early when it hasn't even started? … Enough is enough... get a grip!" said Steve Quigley from Pasadena.
Wednesday should be mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-30s and west winds gusting to 30 mph.
The busted forecast was blamed on the slow progress of a storm system that had moved out of the Great Plains and into the Ohio Valley. It was supposed to merge with and intensify the storm system that whitened the Deep South earlier this week and turned up the Atlantic coast toward Delmarva.
The timing was crucial, and the Plains storm dawdled, according to Steve Zubrick, science and operations office at the National Weather Service's forecast office in Sterling, Va.
So, "I have two low pressure systems, one in Western Pennsylvania, and one off the Atlantic coast," he said. "Whenever that happens, the way they're positioned, we don't see a lot of precipitation."
Without the Plains storm to merge with the coastal storm and cause it to deepen and intensify, the snow fizzled, and sleet and freezing rain originally forecast for the Lower Eastern Shore, and Southern Maryland, was able to bull its way north toward Baltimore.
"For snow lovers," Zubrick said, "this one looks like it will be more north and east of us."
Southern New England and coastal regions from New Jersey to Maine were still expecting 6 to 18 inches of snow from the coastal storm.
The earlier threat of significant snow prompted several area school systems to send students home early Tuesday and canceled evening activities and events. Baltimore, Carroll, Howard, Harford counties all dismissed an hour early. Kent and Anne Arundel county schools closed down two hours early.
The first teaser flakes began appearing south of Baltimore, and eventually downtown, in the early afternoon. But they failed to impress, and quickly vanished.
By early afternoon, National Weather Service forecasters began to scale back their accumulation predictions as warmer air began to intrude into the area west of the Chesapeake, threatening to add sleet and freezing rain to the snow.
Their earlier 3-to-5-inch forecast for Baltimore and its suburbs faded to 2-to-4 inches, and finally to 1 to 2.
State Highway Administration crews were on the job Monday and Tuesday, pre-treating thousands of lane-miles in anticipation of snow.
Highways in Frederick, Howard and portions of Carroll counties received an 85/15 mix of salt brine and sugar beet molasses, an environmentally benign concoction used for the first time last winter.
"It's a very effective tool for keeping material on the roads for a longer duration," said SHA spokesman Charlie Gischlar. "Last year was a pilot, and we were happy with what we saw, so we expanded its usage."
Other areas were treated with conventional road salt, with the exception of far Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore, which were not expecting much snow.
In all, state highway crews had 1,700 pieces of equipment loaded and ready as the storms approached. The evening rush hour went off without a hitch.
While the outcome may have disappointed some, forecasters warned that the overnight precipitation would be followed by more unusually cold and windy January weather.
Daytime temperatures for the rest of the week are not expected to move beyond the mid-30s, with highs Thursday and Friday near freezing. Overnight lows will fall into the teens on Thursday and Friday nights.
The cold will be exacerbated by strong winds sweeping counterclockwise around the departing storm system, gusting out of the northwest as high as 30 mph Wednesday and Thursday.
Sunny skies leading into the weekend will help to warm things up a bit. But daytime highs are not likely to reach seasonal norms (the low 40s) until Monday, forecasters said.