With Hurricane Earl continuing its push toward the East Coast, hotels and other businesses in Ocean City were bracing for some cancellations over the big Labor Day weekend.
The Labor Day weekend has become more weather-dependent in recent years because the school year starts earlier in many localities, said Susan Jones, executive director of the Ocean City Hotel Motel Restaurant Association. Business slows by the end of August, and many businesses count on not only the existing bookings but also the last-minute visits that have become more common.
Despite the still-unpredictable course of Earl, she noted that forecasts look good for Saturday and Sunday. "We just have to get through Thursday night and Friday. Typically, with any hurricane, it's absolutely gorgeous after a bad rainstorm."
Meanwhile, two cruise ships out of the port of Baltimore were adjusting itineraries and port calls in the Caribbean.
The Carnival Pride, on a seven-day cruise, is skipping a port call at Grand Turk Island. Instead, the Pride will stop Wednesday at Port Canaveral, then spend two days in the Bahamas at Freeport and Nassau.
Royal Caribbean's Enchantment of the Seas, on a nine-night cruise, skipped a stop at St. Thomas on Monday. Instead, the cruise made calls at Samana, Dominican Republic, and Labadee, Haiti. The ship will spend the next three days at sea, returning to Baltimore on Saturday.
The National Hurricane Center said late this morning that Earl continued to move away from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Heavy rains, battering waves and tropical-storm-force winds were all forecast to diminish Tuesday in the U.S. possessions as the storm continued to depart.
Those same hazards were expected to increase farther west in the Turks & Caicos Islands, where a tropical storm warning was posted. A tropical storm watch was issued for the eastern Bahamas.
The latest forecast calls for cloudy, breezy and showery weather Friday in Ocean City, as Earl passed off the Delmarva coast by 8 a.m. Unless the forecast changes in the coming days, the hurricane is expected to pass well off the resort's beaches. The rest of the weekend looks fine, with sunny skies and highs near 80 degrees.
A quarter of a million people were expected in Ocean City for Labor Day weekend. After a weekend that saw one fatality and nearly 500 rescues from waves stirred up by a far more distant storm, everyone hopes the new storm will track well east of the beaches.
"We're monitoring the forecasts because we know it can change suddenly. Hurricanes have a mind of their own," said Donna Abbott, spokeswoman for the Town of Ocean City. "But we're not really pushing any panic buttons at this point. We're a coastal community, and we've been through these situations before."
Earl spent much of Monday pounding the U.S. Virgin Islands and other islands in the Northern Leewards. Top sustained winds were estimated at 135 mph, making Earl a dangerous Category 4 hurricane. Conditions were favorable for further strengthening, but the storm is expected to be less than a Category 3 by Friday.
The storm's center late Monday was passing north of Puerto Rico. Most forecast models predicted it would make a gradual turn to the northwest in the next few days, bringing it closer to the Outer Banks before weather systems turn it to the north and finally to the northeast, away from a direct landfall.
Even so, the Maryland Emergency Management Agency began daily conference calls Monday with the National Weather Service and local emergency managers.
"Everyone realizes this is quite a few days out, but clearly no matter what happens with this thing, there will be issues to deal with at the coastal resorts," said MEMA spokesman Ed McDonough.
"The big issue, of course, will be what decisions Ocean City decides to make with regard to vacationers down there, and whether it would be prudent to have them head home," he said.
The resort is still a long way from that sort of decision, Abbott said.
"In the 30 years I've lived down here, we've only had to evacuate once," she said. That was in late September 1985, when powerful Hurricane Gloria made a run up the coast less than 50 miles off the resort's beaches.
With top winds of 120 mph, Gloria could have been a killer. But the storm passed by at a brisk 30 mph, subjecting Ocean City to heavy winds for a relatively brief period. Favorable wind directions and the arrival of a cold front also helped to minimize the damage.
Even so, storm waves tore up large sections of the boardwalk, caused two fires and flooded the resort's streets. More than 52,000 people were evacuated.
Across the region, the bad weather closed schools, downed trees, cut electrical power and drenched the region with heavy rain. Baltimore recorded more than 6 inches of rain from the storm, some of which was welcomed after a dry summer.
No one is predicting such consequences yet from Earl. Many hurricanes moving up the coast in the past — such as Gladys and Dora in 1964, and Doria in 1967 — have left little more than minor coastal flooding and blustery winds in their wakes.
Periodic beach replenishment and the construction of oceanfront dunes since the 1990s have also reduced Ocean City's risk from tropical storms and nor'easters.
"We have had no significant damage since beach replenishment," Abbott said. "It's saved us millions of dollars in potential damages, and no lives have been lost from storm activity." Plans this year to pump more sand onto the beaches to patch eroded areas were postponed until after the summer season.
But even with a relatively benign track, well off shore, Earl could pose dangerous risks for swimmers.
Surf conditions were better on Monday, although a shore break still threatened to knock down swimmers and jam body surfers into the sand in shallow water, the Ocean City Beach Patrol said.
Over the weekend, lifeguards made 477 rescues over two days. Big waves and strong shore currents stirred up by Hurricane Danielle — more than 1,000 miles at sea — created powerful rip currents as big waves drained off the sand.
One swimmer, identified as Melkis DelGado, 23, of Washington, was missing and presumed drowned after he went swimming with friends late Saturday — after 5:30 p.m., when lifeguards leave their posts for the day.
The Coast Guard called off its search late Sunday after looking for DelGado for 20 hours. He was believed to be the first swimming fatality at the resort this summer.
As bad as it was, the 250 rescues on Saturday did not approach a record for the summer, according to Beach Patrol Lt. Ward Kovacs. The busiest day was July 11, when strong currents and the season's biggest crowds combined to trigger nearly 600 rescues.
"The most important message we can get out there is, 'Keep your feet in the sand until lifeguards are in their stands,'" Kovacs said.
The lifeguards are trained to spot rip currents, he said. "We encourage people to go to a guard stand and ask where they should swim that day."
Swimmers get into trouble when they drift into an area where water draining off the beach cuts a channel, concentrating the force of the water spilling back into the ocean and making it impossible to swim directly to shore. Kovacs said swimmers should remain calm, yell for help and swim parallel to the beach at least the length of a backyard pool before turning at an angle toward the beach.
For the busy Labor Day weekend, the Beach Patrol plans to add "dozens" of stands and guards to the 45 in place this week, Kovacs said.
Ocean City officials urged residents and visitors to stay abreast of the forecasts and make sure they have their own emergency supplies and plans ready in case the situation becomes more threatening.
The town's plan, if conditions warrant, would begin with Phase 1, calling on people traveling to Ocean City to postpone their visits. People in mobile homes or in flood-prone areas would be asked to secure their homes and prepare for possible evacuation. Boat owners would be asked to secure and move their boats.
If Phase 2 is activated, nonresidents and vacationers, residents of mobile homes or those who live in flood-prone areas would be asked to evacuate. Bus services would be used to transport people to temporary shelters.
Under Phase 3, a local state of emergency would be declared, and everyone other than emergency personnel would be evacuated. Traffic would be limited to those seeking to leave town.
The Ocean City Chamber of Commerce has even developed a plan to evacuate the estimated 5,000 Eastern European students in the resort this summer working in hotels and restaurants, according to MEMA's Ed McDonough.
Because most of the foreign workers are without their own transportation, the chamber and emergency managers have plans to bus them to the Ocean City Convention Center, and from there to shelters at Arthur W. Perdue Stadium in Salisbury or even the Baltimore Convention Center if availability and conditions require it.
On the bright side, a good dose of rain would be welcome in portions of Maryland where moisture has been scarce this summer. The Lower Eastern Shore, Southern Maryland and Western Maryland remain in moderate to severe drought.
It is too late for corn, but soybeans and other late-season crops could still benefit, according to Julie Oberg, a spokeswoman for the Maryland Department of Agriculture.
The USDA's weekly Weather & Crops Report, released Monday, shows 55 percent of the state's topsoil and 64 percent of the subsoils are rated "short" or "very short" of moisture.
Salisbury is 10 inches short of average rainfall for the year. Washington County is in "severe" drought, with little rain for the past month. Hagerstown is 9 inches short of average rainfall rain for the year.
lorraine.mirabella@baltsun.com