Anyone wishing to gain insight into the 2010 election season should pay special attention to Baltimore County.

Baltimore County is a bellwether for three reasons. First, like Maryland, Democrats enjoy a better than 2 to 1 advantage in voter registration. Second, Republicans run competitively at the local, legislative and congressional levels. Third, the proper alignment of circumstances occasionally produces surprising results.

In 1990, voter unhappiness toward Democratic County Executive Dennis Rasmussen resulted in the election of Roger Hayden, the first Republican to hold that position since Spiro Agnew, as well as the election of three GOP councilmen.

Looking ahead, there are compelling reasons to believe that 2010 may be another high-water year for Baltimore County Republicans. First, the political landscape favors the GOP.

The sputtering economy feeds anti-incumbent sentiment, as does anger over the Baltimore County Council's handling of the pensions issues. Factor in the negative publicity received recently by Democratic councilmen Stephen G. Samuel Moxley (1st District), Kenneth Oliver (3rd District), and Vince Gardina (5th District), and you have a compelling case for change.

Second, an unusual number of contested elections are occurring next year.

County Executive James T. Smith Jr. is term limited, and four of seven incumbent councilmen are not seeking re-election. Of the open districts, presidential candidate John McCain carried the 6th District comfortably in 2008, and the Towson/Perry Hall-based 5th District is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. The GOP, with currently only one member on the seven-member council, has an opportunity to triple its representation (assuming GOP Councilman T. Bryan McIntire is re-elected), giving it the numbers needed to block attempts at gerrymandering during redistricting.

Additionally, Democratic incumbents will face stiff challenges from Republicans in both the 8th and 42nd legislative districts. In the 8th District, only 299 votes separated Democratic Del. Todd Schuler (who is not running for re-election) from former Republican Del. John Cluster (who is running) in 2006. Competitive races for the 1st Congressional District seat and the open 8th District state Senate seat - not to mention a possible Ehrlich-O'Malley gubernatorial rematch - should spur Republican turnout as well.

Third, divisions exist among county Democrats.

Councilmen Kevin Kamenetz (2nd District) and Joseph Bartenfelder (6th District) are Democrats who want to be county executive. But that's where the similarities end. Mr. Kamenetz represents a liberal, suburban, predominantly Jewish district. Mr. Bartenfelder's district is conservative, more rural, and working to middle class. Whoever emerges from a fractious, divisive, Parkville versus Pikesville primary may have difficulty uniting these disparate constituencies should a credible, well-funded, moderate Republican candidate emerge.

To take advantage of this opportunity, Baltimore County Republicans must focus on two priorities.

First, they must emphasize positive, good-government themes such as accountability, transparency and reform. These themes, which appeal to people across the political spectrum, have special resonance in an anti-establishment year.

Second, they must recruit candidates who are civic activists first and partisans second. In an election cycle presenting real opportunities, serial candidates, cranks and political hacks need not apply. Instead, the party should field the kind of candidates from the political periphery who have to be talked into running.

For example, former Maryland Department of Transportation staffer David Marks, president of the Perry Hall Improvement Association, may run for the 5th District seat. In the 1st District, civic activist Steve Whisler is running. Both Republicans have a deep, personal history of community involvement that will impress independent-minded voters.

Baltimore County Republicans still have a long road ahead. They face an entrenched local Democratic establishment with a track record of winning, backed by the strong financial support of developers and others with a stake in the status quo. And, they face a Democratic governor who will keep a close eye on events in a county important to his own re-election.

But circumstances have opened a window of opportunity in Baltimore County. The GOP must mobilize now to seize this chance for relevancy, or risk hibernating until the next one arrives.

Richard J. Cross III, a Baltimore resident, is a former press secretary and speechwriter to Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. His e-mail is rcrossiii@comcast.net.