The past few months have been spent in almost constant analysis of the way Orioles president Andy MacPhail has reconfigured the roster and set the team in a new direction, which might or might not lead to a new era of competitive baseball in Baltimore.

The only thing certain is that it won't lead there right away.

MacPhail's reconstruction project was never aimed at 2008 and probably won't reach fruition in 2009, so the challenge of this season is finding reasons to remain interested in the rebuilding Orioles when all you're going to be able to see is the concrete being poured for the foundation.

In other words, it's really as much about you as it is about them.

Maybe that's not really fair, considering that you've already suffered through 10 years of frustration and mismanagement, only to be told that you need to be patient for at least a couple more seasons, but that's the only way things have a chance to get better.

It's tempting to look back on all the other fits and false starts and lapse into that familiar fatalism that has become almost comfortable these past few years, except that giving up is not an option.

So, it's time to jump on board with young Adam Jones and ride out the highs and lows of his first Orioles season as if it were a new HBO miniseries. It's time to see whether Nick Markakis can build on his breakout 2007 season and Adam Loewen can come back from that freak elbow fracture.

This year will be all character and plot development, because the one thing you can be sure about is that there will be no happy ending.

The key to enjoying this Orioles season might be best articulated by the funny button I used to wear during my cynical college years:

"Since I gave up hope, I feel much better."

The oddsmakers at the Las Vegas Hilton have set the over-under for Orioles victories this year at 64 1/2 , the lowest number for any major league team. I think they'll win a few more than that, but the people in Vegas don't do this stuff for their health, so you can check any remaining illusions about 2008 at the turnstiles.

I'm guessing the Orioles won't be printing playoff tickets in 2009, either, though that might be the year when you start seeing the outlines of a competitive team.

That might be the year Loewen and Jeremy Guthrie and Troy Patton start to form the nucleus of a truly solid starting rotation. It would be great if Daniel Cabrera were in that mix, too, but when I give up on somebody, I never look back.

That might also be the year Jones steps up and top catching prospect Matt Wieters steps in and Markakis removes any doubt about his future as one of the game's top stars.

Or it could all be so much more pie in the sky from an organization that only recently figured out that the best way to get out of a hole is to stop digging.

The sad alternative reality: The New York Yankees have already sold every one of their premium front-row seats for the inaugural 2009 season at the new Yankee Stadium for $2,500 per game, and the Orioles will have trouble giving away their tickets to any game in 2009 that doesn't involve the Yankees and Red Sox.

Sure, it could all go wrong again, but what's the point of thinking that way? If MacPhail's plan achieves even modest progress over the next couple of years, the Orioles will be in a position -- both financially and strategically -- to take a giant leap into the free-agent market and drastically upgrade the team for 2010.

It might seem like a stretch, but isn't that what the legions of dispirited Detroit Tigers fans were saying before that team's young pitchers bloomed and the organization turned the corner with several big acquisitions?

In the meantime, the bullpen is going to scare you, and the young players are going to do all the stupid things young players do, and the 2008 Orioles are going to be one of the losingest teams in baseball.

MacPhail never sugarcoated his rebuilding strategy. His approach from the day he arrived was to be "brutally honest" about the sacrifices that would have to be made if the Orioles were ever going to re-emerge as a contending team and crack the seemingly uncrackable status quo in the American League East.

To have any possibility of doing that by 2010, the Orioles will likely have to take a step back in the standings, and everybody knows where that could leave them in 2008.

Cheer up. This is your chance to get in on the ground floor.

peter.schmuck@baltsun.com

Listen to Peter Schmuck on WBAL (1090 AM) at noon most Saturdays and Sundays.