Here is all you really need to know about the Jay Gibbons situation:
There has been speculation he might get a reprieve from his 15-day suspension for admitted use of human growth hormone, and that's actually bad news for the Orioles.
It might be bad news for Gibbons, too, even though negotiations between Major League Baseball and the players union could result in a revised drug policy that would allow him to avoid the suspension and the loss of almost $500,000 in salary.
The suspension, if it sticks, might actually be more of a reprieve than the possible reprieve. It would allow the Orioles an extra two weeks to make a decision to keep Gibbons or swallow the nearly $12 million he's guaranteed over the next two years whether he plays for them this season or not. It would allow them to postpone a difficult choice that might force somebody else - Scott Moore or Tike Redman - off the Opening Day roster.
Even for Gibbons, it's time that might be worth more to him than the money he'll save if the suspension is lifted, since time has a way of making roster decisions for you. There's always the possibility that somebody gets hurt or falls off the map during the early weeks of the season and creates a rationale for keeping him.
Right now, it's hard to make any argument for that. Gibbons has struggled this spring, only occasionally giving any glimpse of the player who once commanded the four-year, $21 million contract that has become an organizational albatross.
For much of camp, he has seemed overmatched at the plate and dispirited in the clubhouse, which is probably understandable under such strained personal circumstances.
If you look at the situation dispassionately - which isn't easy because Gibbons is a likable fellow - the only logical course if the suspension is lifted would be to release him before Opening Day and cut another tie to the team's unhappy recent history.
Of course, that might not seem so logical to the guy who has to light a match to all that money, but it would be another signal to the Orioles' beleaguered fan base that Peter Angelos is totally on board with Andy MacPhail's long-term rebuilding plan.
There is going to be the temptation to hang onto Gibbons and try to squeeze some value out of him over the next few months, but does anyone really believe he's going to become tradable with that contract when a useful outfielder like former Oriole Corey Patterson had to sit out part of spring training just to get a minor league deal?
If there was any possibility of shedding him and recouping even a fraction of his remaining salary, MacPhail would have moved him long before he showed up in Fort Lauderdale and started jousting with the Mendoza line.
His salary should not even come into the conversation, because it is money already spent. The most important consideration is what will best move the Orioles toward a brighter future, and - viewed in that light - the next step should be obvious for either suspension scenario.
If the suspension stands, the Orioles should let it play out and make a roster decision when it can no longer be avoided. That's just practical. If the suspension is lifted and the status of the other outfielders and utility players remains unchanged between now and Opening Day, Gibbons has to go.
The Orioles are trying to embark on an era that is built around fresh young players and old-school principles of player development. They also are trying to distance themselves from a steroid/hGH scandal that left a major stain on the organization. Gibbons doesn't fit that youth-oriented blueprint for the future and he would be a constant reminder of the team's steroid-soiled past.
Seems like a pretty simple equation.
peter.schmuck@baltsun.com
Listen to Peter Schmuck on WBAL (1090 AM) at noon most Saturdays and Sundays.