Last fall, Baltimore leaders proclaimed a "reversal of fortune" when revised 2006 Census figures revealed the city's population had increased after a half century of decline.
But new census estimates released today imply that such fortunes might be changing. Baltimore's population decreased by 3,506 people during the year that ended July 1, 2007, to 637,455. For a city whose officials have viewed population figures as a sign of economic health, numbers matter.
Still, demographers note that the slight dip is only an estimate and that the finding is largely considered "preliminary."
For the past several years, city leaders have challenged the U.S. Census Bureau's estimates as being too low. In turn, the bureau has responded each year by revising the numbers upward. The adjusted estimate for 2006 put Baltimore's population at 640,961, up 897 from the 2005 count of 640,064. The initial 2006 estimate had been 631,366.
"We anticipate we will appeal," said Sterling Clifford, a spokesman for Mayor Sheila Dixon. "If you look at the construction projects around the city and real estate transfers, areas that have been redeveloped, it's difficult to square all of those things with continued population decline. And of course last year, we appealed the estimate, and the census credited us correctly with a population increase."
The bureau makes its annual estimates by taking the most recent decennial census and adjusting it using births, deaths and immigration data. When jurisdictions challenge the figures, new calculations take into account such data as construction permits and housing occupancy rates.
"The trends from the 1990s are pretty inconsistent with what's been going on over the last decade," Clifford said.
Demographic experts say they expect the final figures will show either a modest gain or small loss; either way, no cause for panic.
"There is nothing that leads us to believe that the city's loss would be that drastic," said Dunbar Brooks, manager of data development for the Baltimore Metropolitan Council.
The city appears to be reaping the benefit of new housing, particularly on the waterfront. Such new developments are drawing empty nesters, young singles and small families, Brooks said. While larger families continue to move out of Baltimore, the pace has slowed, he said.
Elsewhere, Maryland counties are growing, however slightly, according to the census bureau estimates, which include data on the nation's counties. Howard County had the largest population growth rate in the Baltimore region, increasing by about 3,000 people from 270,505 to 273,669. The largest percentage gains were along the Eastern Shore and exurban areas.
Prince George's County was the only Maryland jurisdiction to see a decline larger than Baltimore's, with a population decrease of about 6,000 people from 834,660 to 828,770. In recent years, Prince George's residents have begun migrating to Charles County and elsewhere, seeking more affordable homes and better schools.
"Like Montgomery County and all of the inner-ring counties, these places are getting very crowded and are suffering form all the problems that are driving people out of Washington D.C. - higher housing costs and increased traffic," said Mark Mather, a demographer with the Washington D.C.-based Population Reference Bureau.
As a whole, Maryland's population has experienced its slowest growth rate in decades. The state increased by 16,300 people between 2006 and 2007, the smallest gain this decade and the tiniest increase since 1980, according to an earlier analysis by the Maryland Department of Planning. In 2000, Maryland was ranked 16th among states for the largest growth, according to the census bureau. Last year, it ranked 31st.
Brooks said the recent economic downturn could be pushing people to seek more affordable places to live. Even before the economy weakened, Maryland's high housing costs drove residents to neighboring states with more affordable housing, he said.
"When we have a strong economy, we are a magnet to many different people. When the economy isn't so good, we lose people," he said.
kelly.brewington@baltsun.com