Having already struggled to tighten their budget belts, local governments are anxiously watching the General Assembly and hoping that talk of up to $300 million more in cuts to the state budget won't lead to another hit.

Only weeks remain before local budgets are unveiled, and leaders said last-minute state cuts could undermine carefully calculated spending plans, in part because of the different ways the economy affects the two levels of government.

The counties are grappling with lower real estate transaction revenues and higher energy and construction costs, along with cuts made during the General Assembly's special session late last year. But important revenue sources such as property taxes are essentially known for the coming fiscal year, leaving any action in Annapolis the biggest potential disruption to local spending plans, officials said.

For some jurisdictions, the situation is particularly acute.

Baltimore is looking at a projected $10 million shortfall, and Montgomery County is facing a potential deficit of nearly $300 million for the fiscal year that begins July 1.

"To add to that pain at this point would be unbearable," said Montgomery County Executive Isiah Leggett.

Although nothing has been decided, Senate Budget and Taxation Committee Chairman Ulysses Currie said further cuts could have an effect locally.

"I think [cuts] would be probably done across the board," said the Prince George's County Democrat. "Whether counties would be impacted, I can't say."

While the state is seeing the slowdown in consumer spending quickly affect sales tax revenue, the local jurisdictions won't see major revenue changes until next year's budget cycle - other than the chance of more state cuts.

"The bulk of the state revenue is from income and sales tax," said Ted Zaleski, Carroll County's budget officer. "We're not involved in the sales tax."

State sales tax receipts for December are 5.5 percent lower than for the same month the previous year, according to Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot. The drop is part of the reason state legislators are talking about more cuts. If the trend continues next fiscal year, making cuts now could forestall another state budget shortfall.

Baltimore's shortfall has been caused mainly by police and fire overtime, City Council members heard this week. Property and income tax receipts are higher, but recordation and transfer taxes - collected when homes change hands - are $20 million under projections.

"We're in a challenged environment," Helene Grady, a deputy finance director for the city, told the council this week. "Revenues are coming in just slightly over budget, but expenses are coming in a little higher, and we're working hard to close the gap."

Baltimore County officials have used conservative revenue estimates and do not plan on cost-of-living raises for county employees after a $40 million revenue loss from the November tax changes and cuts that the Assembly made.

Donald I. Mohler III, a spokesman for County Executive James T. Smith Jr., said the county planned for the slowdown, but he added, "Any additional cuts to local governments would force us to re-evaluate everything."

Howard's real estate transfer and recordation taxes are projected down this fiscal year, by about $4.4 million. But Raymond S. Wacks, Howard budget director, has said property tax revenues are up $14.5 million and income taxes are $4.4 million over projection.

Anne Arundel, like other local governments, is seeing real estate transactions dwindle and with them tax revenue from those sales. Based on a current snapshot of the budget, Anne Arundel is "close to break even," said budget director John Hammond.

Last month, County Executive John R. Leopold imposed a hiring freeze on nonemergency jobs.

The prospect of reacting to the effect that last-minute changes in state funding have on the nearly yearlong local budget process gives local officials fits.

"It truly is a significant problem," Carroll's Zaleski said. "You can't easily make adjustments in a short time."

Leopold said, "The buck stops at the local level. I can't pass the baton on to someone else."

Local leaders point to the significant cuts they have absorbed from tax changes made by the General Assembly during the November special session. Those range from a slowdown in Thornton education aid and changes to the income tax standard deduction that will help taxpayers but hurt local governments' share of receipts.

They are hoping that will safeguard them from more fiscal damage.

"There has been a recognition that the local governments made a very significant contribution during the special session to assuring the state's fiscal integrity," said David S. Bliden, executive director of the Maryland Association of Counties.

Bliden is lobbying legislative committees to prevent further cuts, he said. Local government will lose nearly $400 million in revenues from the special session actions, he said.

"The counties are already stretched," he said. "We're the easy target in many ways."

Leopold called limiting further state cuts "the most important goal of the county during this [General Assembly] session."

If more cuts come, many local officials say, they aren't sure where reductions would be made.

"Unfortunately, any substantial cuts in state aid to the counties cannot be absorbed by local revenues and could result in direct cuts to county services, including education," said Howard County's Wacks.

Potential reductions in Anne Arundel services would depend on the amount of any further state cuts, Hammond said.

larry.carson@baltsun.com

Sun reporters John Fritze, Phillip McGowan and Mary Gail Hare contributed to this article.