Johns Hopkins senior defenseman Eric Zerrlaut has had almost a year to digest speculation that the No. 1 Blue Jays are poised to repeat as national champions and capture their third crown in four years.
He isn't buying it.
"We're not confident about repeating," said Zerrlaut, a Gambrills native and St. Mary's graduate. "That's the wrong way to approach it because we're not owed anything just because we returned a lot of guys. It's about taking what we're given and doing the best we can with it."
History would seem to support Zerrlaut. No team has won back-to-back national crowns since 1998, when Princeton capped a run of three straight.
Four other programs have repeated as champions, and only the Blue Jays have won at least two straight crowns on two different occasions (1978-1980 and 1984-1985).
Coaches and analysts agree that Johns Hopkins' championship hopes hinge on hurdling several obstacles:
Competitive balance
More institutions are making commitments to their lacrosse programs, and that funding is leading to results. Ten of the 13 schools on the Blue Jays' schedule made the NCAA tournament last year, and the opponents' combined 2007 record is 127-75.
"The landscape of lacrosse - as I look at our opponents - is very difficult," said Johns Hopkins coach Dave Pietramala, whose team faces Albany today at noon at Homewood Field to begin the 2008 season. "I think the talent out there right now is as good as it has been, and you add that to the challenge of putting last year behind us and moving forward. For any team that has won a championship, that's a challenge."
Roster changes
Graduation and injuries can have a significant impact on championship hopes.
The 2007 Virginia, 2006 Johns Hopkins and 2005 Syracuse teams began those seasons without Tewaaraton Trophy winners Matt Ward, Kyle Harrison and Michael Powell, respectively. Virginia, which won the crown in 2003, lost six players to season-ending injuries en route to a 5-8 record in 2004.
What would happen if the Blue Jays had to play without midfielders Paul Rabil or Stephen Peyser or attackman Steven Boyle?
"I think the real key is that the wearing-down effect is huge," Princeton coach Bill Tierney said. "It's a long stretch to win the regular season, the postseason, a championship and then have a good offseason to come back with a target on your back in every game."
High expectations
Defending national champions have to fend off high expectations, including media hype and alumni pressure. Players' egos swell after reading articles in publications and on the Web. Alumni and fans eager for another title bemoan the smallest details.
"You're the defending national champion, and people expect you to repeat," said UMBC coach Don Zimmerman, who guided Johns Hopkins to national championships in 1984, 1985 and 1987. "It's just added pressure."
Johns Hopkins' current situation is not unlike 2006 when the Blue Jays prepared to start the season as reigning champions. That squad went 9-5 and fell in the NCAA tournament quarterfinals.
"Having had to do that once after the '05 season, the challenges are more tremendous," Pietramala said. "We're keenly aware that last year is over. Right now, we start where every other team in the country is starting. We start at the bottom of the mountain, and we have to climb that mountain. ... We don't deserve anything based on what we did last year."
So does Johns Hopkins have the goods? ESPN lacrosse analyst Quint Kessenich, the starting goalie on the Blue Jays' 1987 national title squad, seems to think so.
"They can repeat," he said. "They're one of six teams with a chance to win the national title. It's a long season, and a lot of things can happen. But they certainly have the talent, they have the coaching, and they have the experience."
edward.lee@baltsun.com
REPEATING HISTORY
No Division I men's lacrosse team has captured back-to-back national titles since Princeton won its third straight in 1998. Here are the champions since then and how they fared the next season:
Year Champion Next season's record and finish
1999 Virginia 13-2; lost in NCAA semifinal
2000 Syracuse 13-3; lost in NCAA final
2001 Princeton 10-5; lost in NCAA final
2002 Syracuse 10-6; lost in NCAA semifinals
2003 Virginia 5-8; no NCAA appearance
2004 Syracuse 7-6; lost in NCAA first round
2005 Johns Hopkins 9-5; lost in NCAA quarterfinals
2006 Virginia 12-4; lost in NCAA first round
2007 Johns Hopkins