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VOTERS TREND YOUNG, BLACK

THE BALTIMORE SUN

WASHINGTON -- Democratic voters who turned out on Tuesday were younger and more likely to be African-American than in past years, an indication of how the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama reshaped Maryland's dominant party in the weeks leading up to this year's primary.

Obama led in all areas of the state and among all age and education groups on his way to a win that helped propel him to a lead in the delegate count for the first time.

As in other states, his victory was aided by young voters. Voters under age 30 made up 14 percent of Democratic primary participants, up from 8 percent four years ago.

The overall rate of young people from either party taking part in the election grew from 11 percent in 2000 to 15 percent this week, according to an analysis by the University of Maryland's Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.

White voters made up 53 percent of Democrats going to the polls, down from 58 percent in 2004. The proportion of Democrats who were black rose from 35 percent to 37 percent.

Female Democrats voted in greater numbers than four years ago, and white women voters supported Sen. Hillary Clinton by a sizable amount. But their backing was nowhere near enough to carry her to victory. With 97 percent of precincts reporting, Obama led Clinton, 60 percent to 37 percent.

Clinton appears to have been hurt by some subtle but significant shifts in Maryland's Democratic voting population.

Jewish voters - an important subgroup in Maryland - supported Clinton by a 60 percent-to-40 percent edge, but turned out in fewer numbers than in the past.

Jews made up 9 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in 2004, but only 4 percent this week, exit polling showed.

Their turnout rate may have been suppressed because many Jews who are registered Democrats are "very comfortable" with Republican John McCain's support of Israel, said Arthur C. Abramson, executive director of the Baltimore Jewish Council and a former political science professor.

The fastest-growing segment of the Baltimore area's Jewish population is Orthodox Jews, who tend to be registered Republican or independent, Abramson said.

Additionally, some members of the Jewish community have concerns about Obama, Abramson said.

Some are being affected by rapidly circulating e-mails that raise the false claim that Obama, a practicing Christian, is a Muslim once schooled in a madrassa. Others are concerned that the pastor of Obama's Chicago church gave an award last year to Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, who has angered Jews by accusing them of controlling media enterprises and participating in 17th- and 18th-century slave-trading.

But Jews tend to vote more on economic concerns than on support of Israel or other foreign policy issues, Abramson said - and will probably align strongly with the Democratic nominee in the general election.

"At this point, I wouldn't make too much of it," he said.

Fewer voters came from households with union members, another segment of Clinton's strength elsewhere. Several unions have strongly backed her candidacy, but their influence could be waning.

While nearly three in 10 Democratic voters came from union households four years ago, the number slipped to less than one in four this year.

Maryland's Republican voting population appears to have become wealthier, better educated, slightly younger and more conservative since the last competitive primary eight years ago.

Those trends all appeared to favor this week's winner, McCain, who was also on the ballot in 2000. McCain was carrying Maryland with 55 percent of the Republican vote, to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's 29 percent, in unofficial results.

The number of Republican moderates may be on the decline, but by running against a social conservative in Huckabee, McCain was able to make big gains with the middle-of-the-roaders.

In 2000, Republican voters who identified themselves as moderates made up 34 percent of the voting population, and backed McCain over then-Gov. George W. Bush by 53 percent to 43 percent.

This year, however, moderates chose McCain by 74 percent to 15 percent over Huckabee, although they slipped to 31 percent of the electorate.

"The moderates were less driven to get out to vote because their attitude since Super Tuesday was 'McCain's got it,'" said Kevin Igoe, a Republican strategist who had been working for the campaign of Mitt Romney.

In 2000, 18 percent of Republican voters identified themselves as "very conservative," and among that group, Bush beat McCain 70 percent to 10 percent.

This year, the proportion of very conservative Republicans grew to 26 percent of the party electorate. But McCain did better among that group than he did eight years ago, losing to Huckabee by only a 42 percent-to-36 percent margin.

"I think he's starting to bring conservatives in line," Igoe said, citing possible influence of this week's endorsements by evangelical leader Gary Bauer.

While historically high, Maryland's youth turnout rate increase was lower than that in some other states, where the rate tripled or, in the case of Tennessee, quadrupled, said Peter Levine, executive director of the UM civic learning and engagement center.

"It's a statistically significant increase, but not the most dramatic increase in the country," Levine said.

The phenomenon owes its genesis to more than just the Obama phenomenon, as in some states Clinton carried the youth vote, Levine said. The national numbers reflect "some fairly deep changes in young people," he said, which show themselves also in high volunteerism rates.

david.nitkin@baltsun.com

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