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Feb. primary has officials watching sky

The Baltimore Sun

When lawmakers acted last year to push Maryland's presidential primary back into the middle of February, they also plowed it deeper into winter. And that raised a new question.

What if it snows - hard - on primary day?

"Bite your tongue!" said Jacqueline McDaniel, director of Baltimore County's Board of Elections, when a reporter broached the question.

McDaniel said she has conferred with county schools and public works officials, police and private plow operators to make sure - if it snows - that polling places are cleared and shoveled for voters Feb. 12. She also has surveyed election workers about their access to four-wheel-drive transportation.

"Hopefully, we will keep the election on an even keel and have everything we feel we need," she said. "I feel we've done everything we can."

But if the region does get 2 feet of snow, as it did in mid-February 2003, she said, "there's not much anybody can do. ... Hopefully, the powers that be will call the election" and postpone it to "a time when everybody can participate."

Maryland's presidential primary date has been slip-sliding into winter for two decades.

From World War II until 1984, it was held amid the blossoms of May, although it was shuffled from the first, to the third, to the second Tuesday as political considerations dictated.

In 1988, hoping to attract candidates and keep Maryland relevant in the nationwide scurry for earlier, more decisive primaries, Maryland moved its date to the second Tuesday in March.

In 1992, after other states leapfrogged to still-earlier dates, Maryland switched its primary to the first Tuesday in March.

By last year, the primary scrum had pushed more than 20 states into Super Tuesday - Feb. 5.

So, in a renewed effort to raise Maryland's visibility, Gov. Martin O'Malley and Democratic leaders moved the legislature to move the primary yet again, to Feb. 12. That synched Maryland's vote to those in neighboring Virginia and Washington to create a sort of regional almost-super Tuesday. But it also moved the vote deep into Maryland's snowiest time of year.

Statistically, February is Baltimore's second-snowiest month, averaging 6.4 inches, compared with January's 7. But February snows, when they come, can be especially crippling.

Consider that primary day can now fall anywhere between Feb. 8 and Feb. 14.

Now consider that five of the 10 deepest Baltimore snowfalls have occurred in February, all between the 11th and the 19th. Only three of the top 10 storms struck in January, and two hit in March.

The heaviest snowfall on record for Baltimore occurred Feb. 15-18, 2003. That would have spared a presidential primary, but not by much.

Bad weather has always depressed voter turnout. But rain in May, September or November is not as potentially crippling as a heavy February snowstorm.

Political leaders here agree that Marylanders just don't cope with snow as well as folks in Iowa and New Hampshire.

"It can keep people away, if there's ice on the roads, or snow," said John Flynn, executive director of the Maryland Republican Party.

David Paulson, communications director for the Maryland Democratic Party, couldn't recall whether the weather ever came up in last year's deliberations over the new date.

But if it did, he asked, "What would be the choice? Being irrelevant or risking bad weather? I still think relevance trumps bad weather. It's a risk you have to take."

Still, it could be nasty. Even if state and county roads crews get the main roads open and truck election workers to the polls, that may not be enough. It can take Marylanders - the voters - days to dig themselves out of deep snow.

Presidential primary turnout averaged less than 36 percent in 2000 and 24 percent in 2004. What fraction would show up in a big snowstorm?

"I'm hoping, if that type of forecast comes along, the governor will be smart enough" to call it off, McDaniel said.

It can be done, said Donna Duncan, election management director at the State Board of Elections.

"There is a provision for the postponement of an election," she said. "The governor has the ability to issue an executive order, or we [the board] have the ability to go to court and have the courts weigh in on the issue."

Of course, all this speculation might be academic this year. The eight- to 14-day forecast from the National Weather Service calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures through primary day, with near-average precipitation.

But state and local elections officials are planning for the worst.

Duncan said the state board has held meetings and conference calls for local directors, state and local emergency managers to compare notes on storm preparations.

With luck, said Baltimore County's elections chief, none of it will be needed this year.

"I'm just hoping the snow goes by," she said.

frank.roylance@baltsun.com

Say it ain't snow

Here are some heavy storms from Februarys past:

Feb. 15-18, 2003: Biggest snowstorm on record for Baltimore. Airport measures 28.2 inches. Region paralyzed for days.

Feb. 2-3, 1996: Storm drops 2 to 3 feet of snow on Delmarva.

Feb. 10-11, 1994: A series of ice and sleet storms leaves 4 to 7 inches of ice in Northern Maryland. Falling trees cut power for a week in some southern counties; roads impassable.

Feb. 11-12, 1983: Second-deepest snowfall ever in Baltimore. Total of 22.8 inches slows area to a crawl. Other locations see 25 to 30 inches, and 5-foot drifts.

Feb. 6, 1978: Blizzard of '78 leaves a foot of snow in Baltimore, 18 inches in Havre de Grace. National Guard activated.

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