As a bitter Republican primary race for the Maryland's 1st Congressional District gets nastier by the day, Democrats - normally sidelined in the general election by the strong crossover appeal of incumbent Wayne T. Gilchrest - are eager for a general election contest that could be competitive for the first time in years.
National political observers have not counted the district among those that could swing to Democrats this year, mostly because of Gilchrest's landslide victories in recent elections. But if he loses in this month's increasingly bitter GOP primary to either of two more conservative state senators, a well-funded, well-spoken Democrat could stand a fighting chance, operatives on both sides said.
Among the four Democrats competing in the Feb. 12 primary, Queen Anne's County State's Attorney Frank M. Kratovil Jr. has become an early favorite among party luminaries, racking up endorsements from the governor, attorney general, comptroller and several major labor unions.
In an odd twist, Republicans have begun to promote Kratovil's viability in November as an issue in their primary.
"The bitterness in the Republican primary has got to help," said former Gov. Parris N. Glendening, who backs Kratovil, a longtime prosecutor. "He's got a very good chance."
For the past 17 years, voters in the district have handed Gilchrest comfortable victories, but opponents say he has become unpopular and is out of touch with the Republican Party. This year, the primary fight between the nine-term incumbent and state Sens. E.J. Pipkin and Andy Harris has shaped up to be one of the most corrosive and expensive congressional primaries in the nation.
Television attack ads have become ubiquitous, and accusations of lying and political skullduggery abound.
All this, some state Democrats believe, makes the district ripe territory for an upset. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which helps fund the party's candidates and is headed by Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Montgomery County, has shown interest in the race.
"This seat could become competitive, and we are watching it closely," committee spokeswoman Kyra Jennings said in an e-mail. "No matter which battered Republican is on the ballot, all three have shown that they are out of line on issues that matter to the district, and a strong Democratic challenger who fits the area can make this a real race."
Kratovil has raised more than double the campaign funds of his nearest opponent, Cambridge lawyer Christopher Robinson. According to the most recently available campaign finance filings in September, Kratovil had raised more than $240,000 in this election cycle compared with about $86,000 for Robinson.
Remaining contenders Steve Harper, a former foreign service officer, and Joseph M. Werner, a bankruptcy attorney, had not reported raising any funds for the race, federal election records show.
Robinson disputed the notion that Kratovil has the race in the bag. "I think the endorsements are overrated," he said. "I don't think people in the 1st District or anywhere are going to support one candidate because of endorsements. They're going to vote for the person whose sentiments match the sentiments of the 1st District. That's why I can defeat him."
The Republicans - particularly Pipkin - have begun to speak of Kratovil's general election chances in a ploy for their own bids in the GOP primary. Pipkin has taken to saying that Harris, who has emphasized his conservative credentials, is unelectable. The Harris campaign fought back by highlighting past statewide or national contests in which Republicans won easily, even when national trends favored Democrats.
Kratovil, for his part, has taken all the bickering in stride. Even, at times, with a smile.
"We have a good shot for a variety of reasons," he said in an interview in his Centreville office.
Kratovil, 39, listed "getting out of Iraq," reforming health care, cracking down on illegal immigration, environmental problems and veterans issues as important to his campaign.
Privately, some Republican aides have talked up Kratovil's chances, noting his lack of any baggage in a legislative record and his skills as an orator, honed from years of arguing cases in court.
But Democrats shouldn't get too excited, said Nathan Gonzales, political editor for the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, a Washington-based newsletter that tracks House and Senate races.
"Democrats tend to get wide-eyed at bitter Republican primaries, but that doesn't always equal a general election opportunity," he said. "It's extremely difficult to see a Democrat winning this seat, even in a good Democratic year."
Gonzales said that all of the three potential Republican nominees are seasoned politicians who can run well-financed, tenacious campaigns.
Still, Democrats are keeping their hopes up, even as they acknowledge long odds. "It's a race to the bottom on the Republican side, with all the negative ads," said Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller. "If Frank Kratovil can stay above the fray, I think he'll be a formidable candidate."
bradley.olson@baltsun.com
Democratic candidates
Name: Frank M. Kratovil Jr. Age: 39 Residence: Stevensville Profession: Queen Anne's County state's attorney Public service/political career: Former assistant state's attorney in Prince George's and Queen Anne's counties
Name: Christopher Robinson Age: 53 Residence: Trappe Profession: Attorney Public service/political career: Former legislative director/chief of staff for Rep. Roy P. Dyson
Name: Steve Harper Age: 46 Residence: Arnold Profession: Vice president, international affairs, Petters Group Worldwide Public service/political career: Former foreign service officer
Name: Joseph M. Werner Age: 47 Residence: Harford County Profession: Attorney Public service/political career: Ran unsuccessfully for Senate in the 2006 Democratic primary
[Source: Individual candidates and campaigns]